Illman: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 3
Let's try an early pick three.
Race 1
A fascinating group of 2-year-old maidens runs. All of the pedigree information can be found by clicking this link.
I prefer #5 FEATHERED, one of two juveniles in here for Todd Pletcher. Not surprisingly, the barn boasts a 40-for-105 record (38 percent) with a $2.73 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special-weight dirt sprints at Saratoga.
Feathered is by the high-percentage debut stallion Indian Charlie, sold for $300,000 earlier this year, and is a granddaughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Finder's Fee.
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#6 WINTER DAWN's trainer, Wayne Catalano, also does good work with debut runners. A half-sister, Summer Cruise, took a pair of sprint stakes races at Tampa Bay Downs so there is some pedigree in play as well. He worked a swift half-mile here 10 days ago.
The aforementioned fillies will be my 'A' plays in the Ticketmaker version of the pick-three play.
My backup, considering that I've guessed wrong more often than not this meet, is the other Pletcher. #3 KINSLEY is the morning-line favorite and attracts John Velazquez. She's out of a multiple stakes-winning router.
A - Feathered
A - Winter Dawn
B - Kinsley
Race 2
I really liked #2 JOE CAN GALLOP's most recent race, a six-furlong turf sprint at Belmont. He showed good early speed and was easily second best behind a heavily favored winner. That was Joe Can Gallop's first start since bombing twice over the Keeneland turf course, and I'll make the argument that he just didn't like the bluegrass. Joe Can Gallop won his maiden over this course and trip last year and seems primed for another good effort.
It's quite possible #4 SUMMER BREEZING is better on a Polytrack surface, but he's given some good performances on grass and is trained by a master in Christophe Clement. The layoff is a concern, but he draws outside the other two speed and may attempt to sweep by them from stalking range when the field swings into the stretch. He's my backup.
A - Joe Can Gallop
B - Summer Breezing
Race 3
Expect #4 FLAT JACK to be a solid favorite after earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in his first start with blinkers. That race has already produced three next-out winners, and Flat Jack should be prominent from the opening bell. He's a single on many tickets, but the specter of Pletcher hangs over this field with a pair of first-time starters.
I'll use #6 MARSH CREEK, a Bernardini gelding as the other main play, with the swift-working #5 MARCH TOO as my backup.
A - Flat Jack
A - Marsh Creek
B - March Too
Here are the Ticketmaker tickets:
All A's ($2 base bet):
5, 6 with 2 with 4, 6 = $8
A's with One B ($1 base bet):
3 with 2 with 4, 6 = $2
5, 6 with 4 with 4, 6 = $4
5, 6 with 2 with 5 = $2
A's with Two B's ($1 base bet):
3 with 4 with 4, 6 = $2
3 with 2 with 5 = $1
5, 6 with 4 with 5 = $2
Total Bet - $21