Illman: How I'd play Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 16
I will key #5 CROWN QUEEN in the early pick four and pick five.
She’s entered in today’s third race, the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes, and could be the third choice in the wagering behind #6 MINORETTE and #4 XCELLENCE. Those two have the gaudy company lines, but Crown Queen, a half-sister to the champion Royal Delta, was very visually impressive in winning an entry-level allowance over the Mellon turf July 20.
Entering the final turn, Crown Queen uncorked a huge four-wide bid and moved from mid-pack to a clear lead in the blink of an eye. That early brush didn’t fatigue her in the slightest as she drew away in the stretch under a mere hand ride. This will be a huge class test for Crown Queen in her stakes debut, but it appears as if she’s ready to live up to her pedigree and $1.6 million purchase price.
It wouldn’t be Saturday at Saratoga without some nice 2-year-olds, and the fourth race, a two-turn maiden special weight on the grass, features some promising colts from top barns. You can find all of the pedigree and trainer information here.
#3 SECURITY RISK and #2 REALITY exit the same race, a six-furlong maiden over the Belmont inner turf July 11. Reality arguably had the worse trip of the two. The son of red-hot freshman sire Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher, was floated four to five wide turning for home and finished with a solid rally. He was hard-ridden from the start and acts like today’s additional distance shouldn’t pose a problem.
Of the two, however, I prefer Security Risk, a grandson of the great Inside Information. Conditioned by Shug McGaughey, Security Risk caught the eye of our clockers, Mike Vesce and Mike Welsch, prior to the debut run. Sent away the favorite in the nine-horse field, Security Risk saved ground, finished evenly, and galloped out with some interest. McGaughey does better second time out, and I’ll wager Security Risk is better prepared for this assignment. He’s a win play at around his 3-1 morning line, and I’ll use him with Reality in exotics and multiple-race wagers.
If you’re looking to spread a bit more, try #10 SYNTAX, a European invader adding Lasix for the first time. He showed good speed overseas while a bit headstrong but wasn’t embarrassed by next-out Group 3 winner Jack Naylor.
The sixth race is for babies on the main track. #7 BOLD CONQUEST is a logical contender and a must-use in multiple-race wagers. The son of Curlin goes out for Steve Asmussen, a trainer with phenomenal numbers in this situation. According to Formulator, the barn is 7 for 18 (39 percent, $3.42 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles in maiden special-weight dirt sprints at Saratoga. Bold Conquest finished second to a live firster here four weeks ago and should be in the thick of things when the field turns for home.
I’ll use Bold Conquest but will also include #4 NOBLE HUSTLE and, to a lesser extent, #5 FAIR ADVANTAGE.
Noble Hustle’s trainer, Tony Dutrow, does better with second-time starters, but he is capable of firing with debuting 2-year-olds (see In Trouble, Big Trouble, I Spent It, etc.). There’s some class in this female family. From a single-race wagering perspective, I’d play him at 7-2 odds or greater.
I wish I had a stronger opinion in today’s featured 10th race, the Grade 1 Alabama, but I don’t want to have too much money against the favored #8 STOPCHARGINGMARIA. I’ll attempt to use her as a bridge in the late pick four.