Illman: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, Aug. 1
The third race isn’t your usual sleepy maiden special weight for fillies and mares as it features #4 SAMANTHA NICOLE, a full sister to Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. While Samantha Nicole needs only a fraction of Rachel Alexandra’s vast ability to win in this spot, the fact remains that she hasn’t raced since February and will try a demanding nine furlongs off the bench. Because of her reputation, she is a very likely underlay at post time.
It might be wise to take small stabs against her with the two fastest horses in the race. #6 CALI STAR has burned a ton of money in her four-race career, but she recently raced wide in the swifter division of one-mile maiden special weights June 13 at Churchill. She finished ahead of Impetuous Youth in that race and was flattered when that foe returned to graduate with a 75 Beyer Speed Figure. Don’t be surprised if Joel Rosario has Cali Star a bit closer to the pace. #7 TWENTY IN ONE carries an upset chance after finishing second in a decent key race May 25 at Churchill.
Expect #3 DRAGONBERRY to improve following an educational debut run at Belmont. She stretches out and can be forwardly placed in a race devoid of speed.
Selections:
1. Cali Star
2. Twenty in One
3. Dragonberry
The featured ninth race is the $100,000 Caress Stakes for female turf sprinters. I’ll hope that the cutback in distance works in #1 BELIEVE IN CHARLIE’s favor. She hung on very gamely to miss by a neck at a huge mutuel going seven furlongs at Belmont most recently. She seems more comfortable at 5 1/2 furlongs and should be a good price once again. A versatile sort who can lead or stalk, Believe in Charlie should be squarely in the thick of things when the field swings into the stretch. The main worry is the ground, as Believe in Charlie might prefer a firmer surface.
She should be utilized in exotics and multiple-race wagers with logical contenders #3 FREE AS A BIRD and #10 MADAME GIRY.
Selections:
1. Believe in Charlie
2. Free as a Bird
3. Madame Giry
Today’s fourth race features a solid cast of optional claimers. Originally, the race was filled with veterans who have perhaps seen better days (#1 THIS HARD LAND, #3 PRAETEREO), underachievers (#2 NORTH SLOPE), and horses dropping out of tougher spots in search of an elusive victory (#4 EVER RIDER).
In this situation, I like to look for horses with upside potential, and #6 ALL TIED UP, a 3-year-old facing older rivals, fits that description.
All Tied Up has done some good things on turf in his career, but he’s taken to dirt nicely since being switched to that surface two starts back by Todd Pletcher. Most recently, he gave an even performance in the $105,000 Long Branch Stakes against some Haskell also-rans and received a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, a number that would be very competitive with this group.
Here’s hoping we haven’t seen his best just yet as a step forward would likely put him in the winner’s circle. From a wagering perspective, I’ll try to hook him up with Ever Rider, who plunges in class following a surprising fourth-place effort at 48-1 in the Grade 2 Suburban, and #5 ST MOOSE, a consistent 5-year-old making his first start since being claimed by Mitch Friedman from Rudy Rodriguez.
Unfortunately, This Hard Land and Praetereo have scratched. The lone source of value could be keying All Tied Up in multiple-race wagers.
Selections:
1. All Tied Up
2. Ever Rider
3. St Moose