Illman: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, Jan. 2
There are three graded stakes races on the Saturday card. Let's try to take down some of the shorter-priced runners.
Race 3: Santa Ynez Stakes
I've never liked PRETTY N COOL (7), who projects to start favored cutting back in distance after a front-running try in the Grade 1 Starlet. While she should really appreciate returning to a sprint, I don't think she has a tremendous edge over this field. Her one "fast" race came in her debut over a wet track, and she hasn't come close to duplicating that 95 Beyer Speed Figure. She isn't the prettiest mover in the world, often makes that final lead change very early on the turn, and will probably have to be at her very best against this solid field.
The two horses I'll try to beat her with are ONE LAST SHOT (5) and FOREVER DARLING (8). One Last Shot, like Pretty N Cool, is a Bob Baffert-trained filly cutting back in distance. Her form is dirtied up by a few dull efforts on turf, but I believe she's at her best sprinting on the dirt. She ran well utilizing the turf-to-dirt, route-to-sprint angle two starts back at Del Mar, has enough tactical speed to stay within range when the real running begins, and should be a playable price. Be warned, however, that of the 21 Baffert-trained winners off 31- to 60-day layoffs over the past year, all of them had at least one workout of five furlongs or greater leading into the winning race. One Last Shot only shows three half-mile drills since her last start. Still, price trumps all, and One Last Shot is worth a bet at 8-1 or greater.
I'll also use Forever Darling in multiple-race wagers. A decent sprint winner two back, Forever Darling was then thrown into the very deep end when entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Draw a line through that race for several reasons. First, it was way too tough a spot. Second, she reportedly displaced her palate and had trouble breathing. And third, that distance might have been a bit too far for her. Her trainer, Richard Baltas, is 6 for 14 (43 percent) with a $4.19 ROI over the past year with horses moving from route to sprint on dirt. Forever Darling drew a good outside post position and can race clear of traffic.
Race 6: Midnight Lute Stakes
SALUTOS AMIGOS (7) should get loads of attention as he returns to California, but I prefer the horse that finished ahead of him in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight Handicap at Aqueduct on Nov. 26.
PULLING G'S (4) was sandwiched at the start, and that cost him an opportunity to gain a forward position over a speed-favoring track. Instead, Pulling G's lingered near the back of the pack with Salutos Amigos. Pulling G's always seemed to be traveling better than Salutos Amigos, spun four to five wide turning for home, and finished with mild interest against the grain of the track. With an alert break Saturday, Pulling G's might pull a good trip stalking the speedy SAN ONOFRE (2) and DISTINCTIV PASSION (3), two wickedly fast horses who could cancel each other out.
Pulling G's twice ran well over this course and distance last year and appears to be in career form for trainer John Shirreffs. I'll play him to win at odds of 9-2 or higher.
Race 8: San Gabriel Stakes
Trainer Phil D'Amato has a very strong hand in the San Gabriel, but the nine-furlong distance might not suit either one of his runners. BIG JOHN B (2), a hard-hitting late-kicker might want a bit more ground. OBVIOUSLY (8) is extremely fast from the gate, but 1 1/8 miles could be too far. Either one could win the San Gabriel, but those are major question marks surrounding two of the shorter-priced runners.
Perhaps I'm simply too late to this party, but I'll go with CHIROPRACTOR (8), a sharp up-and-comer who handles this trip just fine. Chiropractor received a lovely ride from Corey Nakatani when running down the salty Om in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He was able to save ground behind a good pace, got out at just the right time turning for home, and was very game in rebuffing the longshot March in the final sixteenth of a mile.
Chiropractor must face tougher and older foes in the San Gabriel, but he's so lightly raced that I'm not sure we've seen his best just yet. If he steps forward just a bit off the Hollywood Derby, he should prove a handful for the D'Amato duo. I'll play him to win at 9-2 or greater and will use him with Big John B and POWER PED (5), a gelding who occasionally gets a piece at a price.
The fifth race, an optional claimer on the turf, might be crying out for a price horse. The ones I'll use in multiple-race wagers are HIKING (2), who finished ahead of two next-out winners at Golden Gate last time out, and FOOLISH WAYS (5), a filly who had significant traffic trouble in the stretch run of her last race. Other, shorter-priced options include SOCIALIZED (4), EVA CAMPO (6), and BARBARA BEATRICE (12)
Good luck!