Illman: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, April 2

Although the Saturday racing at Gulfstream and Turfway will dominate the public’s attention, Santa Anita offers a solid program featuring a pair of stakes races. Let’s take a look at some potential plays:

Race 10 – SHORTSTORMCOMING (4) – 8-1 morning line – 5-1 value line

If Shortstormcoming was trained by a big name like Baffert, O’Neill, Sadler, D’Amato, etc., he would likely be shorter than his morning-line price. Instead, he is conditioned by Kimberly Marrs, who has done a fine job thus far with the 4-year-old gelding.
Shortstormcoming has never taken a backward step on the Beyer scale, popped a solid 89 speed figure last time when graduating over two next-out winners and has the speed to lead or stalk under Edwin Maldonado. He shows a bullet workout at San Luis Rey two weeks ago and that allays fears of a bounce.

I’ll take 5 to 1 or greater to win on Shortstormcoming and will use him in exotic wagers with a TO THE BAR (#10, 10-1), a 5-year-old who is making his second start off an extremely long layoff. To the Bar was a promising maiden winner on grass before the benching and now moves back to his preferred surface after a stamina- and fitness-building try on dirt.

ZINVOR (#11, 6-1) might very well be the class of this race, but he hasn’t started since June 20 and might need one off the elongated layoff. I would use him “underneath” along with ITSINTHEPOST (#3, 6-1), a gelding who has made a habit of grabbing minor awards at big odds.

Race 7 – GUNS LOADED (7) – 5-2 morning line – 5-2 value line

I’m expecting CAPE WOLFE (1) to take a good amount of money as he drops out of the one-mile Arcadia, but, for a graded stakes race going down the hill, there doesn’t appear to be much pace. That could work against Cape Wolfe’s late kick.

Conversely, Guns Loaded has the ability to lead or track, and he is in razor-sharp form for Doug O’Neill. A winner in three of four starts since being reclaimed, Guns Loaded was a facile winner of the Joe Hernandez on Feb. 28. In that race, favored Rocket Heat held a commanding lead, but Guns Loaded just steamrolled him, and did it under only hands-and-heels urging. Guns Loaded has an annoying habit of drifting in during the stretch drive, but the hope is that he gets the jump on his main competition from stalking range.

I’ll also use OUTSIDE NASHVILLE (#8, 6-1) in equal strength in multiple-race exotics. He’s more of a synthetic horse than anything else, so take his last defeat on dirt with multiple grains of salt, but he has won on grass in the past and looked good running over stakes horses at Golden Gate two back. I like the early interest he displayed in that dirt race and he can work out a good trip while clear of traffic.

It’s hard to go against favored CAT BURGLAR (4) in the fifth race, the $75,000 Santana Mile. If there’s one thing Cat Burglar wants, it’s a flat mile at Santa Anita. Plus, he gets strong class relief after dueling with Donworth in the Grade 2 San Antonio. That was a nine-furlong race and Cat Burglar just couldn’t see out the final eighth against better horses. He should be very salty here and is a logical key in multiple-race bets.