Illman: How I'd play Keeneland for Saturday, Oct. 10
It’s a nice card at Keeneland on Saturday with Sentiero Italia an extremely logical favorite to win the featured Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on turf.
I'll key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my personal value line requirements:
Race 5 – Walker’s Way (8) – 10-1 Morning Line, 8-1 Value Line
The race goes through Union Jackson (2), a colt who earned an excellent 91 Beyer Speed Figure last month in his career debut. Trainer Steve Asmussen excels with second-time runners and Union Jackson should be forwardly placed from the get-go. He’s a must-use in multi-race exotic wagers as the most likely winner of the race.
That being said, Union Jackson was 12- 1 at Churchill and will be hammered at the windows on Saturday. He could also face a hint of early pace pressure from Bow Tie Boss (5) and Dogtown (7).
Instead, I’ll take a small stab with Walker’s Way, a half-brother to recent Lukas Classic winner Geothermal switching to the main track for the first time. Despite a mostly dirt pedigree, he raced twice on grass against decent competition and was hardly embarrassed. He now removes blinkers, adds Joel Rosario and should be perched in a nice outside stalking position. This could be the surface he has wanted all along and he’ll offer nice odds.
I’ll play him to win at 8 to 1 or better and use him with Union Jackson in the multiples.
Race 6 – Bourbon Soul (9) – 5-1 Morning Line, 7-1 Value Line
Bettors will flock to Tennessee (10), a $1.15 million purchase last year who looms the main speed for Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher. While it would be hardly surprising if Tennessee wins on Saturday, I have reservations concerning his overall quality, and serious concerns regarding the added distance and surface switch. Although he’s by Giant’s Causeway, Tennessee’s dam was strictly a dirt sprinter. I’m not positive that he wants 8 1/2 furlongs on turf and certainly won’t back him at a short price.
From a multiple-race standpoint, this looks like a spread. I’ll use horses like Jubal (4), Conquest Panthera (5) and Gin Riki (7). I’ll also give a long look to Bourbon Soul, a new gelding exiting an ultra key race at Churchill Downs on June 26.
Formulator users will note the next-out exploits of several horses that Bourbon Soul faced in that heat:
Thatcher Street – Second in $104,000 stakes at Indiana Grand (90 Beyer), then second in $150,000 restricted stakes at Kentucky Downs (85)
Saham – First in $75,000 statebred stakes at Parx (86), troubled fourth in $206,000 stakes at Indiana Grand (86), then first in Grade 3 Jefferson Cup (85)
Flashy Chelsey – First in first-level allowance at Kentucky Downs (83), then fourth in Jefferson Cup (79)
Dallas Skyline – First in first-level optional claimer at Del Mar (90)
That was a strong race and Bourbon Soul, a horse who tends to hang a bit, could be a new animal after the gelding procedure. He’s worth a small win play at 7 -1 or so.
I’ll spread in some of the other later races. Here’s the Ticketmaker breakdown:
Race 7
“A” horse: Banner Waving (6)
“B” horses: Annabelle (1), J La Tache (2)
Race 8
“A” horse: Enchantress (8)
“B” horses: Another Incident (3), Ciaran’s Prize (9), Dark Rain (5), Bella Veloce (1)
Race 9
“A” horse: Sentiero Italia (9)
“B” horse: Blond Me (7)
Mike Beer and I will handicap these races, as well as some from Belmont and Santa Anita, on our live video stream beginning at 3 p.m. Eastern at live.drf.com. I’ll update there for scratches and course conditions.