Illman: How I'd play Keeneland for Saturday, April 11

The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes and the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes are the featured events on a rock-solid Saturday afternoon card at Keeneland.

I'm going to key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my odds requirements:

Race 11 – Allowance

This entry-level allowance at 1 1/16 miles on turf features horses trained by Wesley Ward, Christophe Clement, Steve Asmussen, and two from Chad Brown. Thus, I’m expecting to get a price on Quality Indeed (1), a gelded son of Quality Road stretching out for the first time for Jeff Thornbury.

Although Thornbury’s name doesn’t carry the same weight with the public as the aforementioned heavy hitters, he usually gets good-priced winners at Keeneland.

Consider these Thornbury-trained local winners over the past few years:

2010: Tonto Too (6-1)

2011: Wild About Marie (12-1)

2012: Bellinizia (13-1)

2013: Cone of Light (12-1)

2014: Penny’s Deputy (14-1)

2014: Rusticana (5-1)

Perhaps Quality Indeed will be the next one to pop at a price. Well-beaten in two starts on dirt, he improved by leaps and bounds when switched to turf two starts back at Fair Grounds. He won a maiden claimer in speedy fashion and almost pulled off another gate-to-wire gambit in allowance company on Feb. 19.

In that spot, he battled hard in the stretch only to drop a head decision to odds-on favorite Fly Friendly Sky, a colt that came back to finish third in the $50,000 Black Gold Stakes with a 78 Beyer.

Quality Indeed must stretch out a demanding three furlongs for this race, but his pedigree indicates the extra distance is within his scope. His sire won three Grade 1 races on dirt at nine furlongs and Quality Indeed is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning turf miler Miss Frost and Prizefighting (listed stakes-placed at 1 3/8 miles on turf in England).

Their dam is a half-sister to three-time stakes-placed router Stoptalkingmaria. Quality Indeed’s second dam, Pharma, captured the Grade 1 Santa Ana Handicap at nine furlongs on turf.

Quality Indeed figures to show good speed from his inside post under Brian Hernandez Jr. I will play him to win at odds of 10-1 or better and will utilize him in multiple-race wagers with Danish Dynaformer (8) and Nipigon (6).

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight

I’m not in love with any of the experienced runners in this race and will side with a first-time starter. Although trainer Mark Casse is 0 for 19 over the past five years with 3-year-old debut runners, Super Humor (3) might be the one to break that streak.

A $100,000 yearling purchase by Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver out of five-time stakes-winner Heavenly Humor, Super Humor appears to have been working in company with Conquest Archangel, a filly who won her maiden last Saturday for Casse with a 75 Beyer. Conquest Archangel ran second last year to highly regarded fillies Take Charge Brandi and Luminance so it appears she has some ability.

Super Humor is playable at 4-1. I will use her with Flying Jibe (10) and Amazing Party (7)

Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight

I’m slightly against Big Red Charlie (3), a colt that lost at 2- 5 in his most recent race at Fair Grounds. Big Red Charlie’s speed should be respected, but it’s possible he will face early pressure from Taketothestreets (8).

Shathoor (6) is my play. A half-brother to three-time Grade 1 winner My Miss Aurelia, Shathoor cuts back in distance following a solid runner-up effort at Fair Grounds behind Great Minds, a colt that returned to win an allowance race on turf at Fair Grounds with a 78 Beyer.

Shathoor could end up stalking the leaders from the outside under James Graham. I would use him at 3-1 or greater.

Race 9 – Jenny Wiley Stakes

Ball Dancing (4) beat Filimbi (3) last month in the Grade 3 Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, but I’m betting that Filimbi will turn the tables at Keeneland.

The winner of the Grade 2 Goldikova Stakes at Santa Anita last fall, Filimbi bobbled at the start of the Hillsborough and raced three and four paths off the rail throughout. Jockey Joel Rosario didn’t beat up on Filimbi once it appeared she wasn’t going to crack the superfecta, and the expectation is that she will move forward with that race under her girth.

Also, the slight cut-back in distance might aid Filimbi more than Ball Dancing, a filly who could prefer nine furlongs. I’m hoping to get odds of 2-1 or greater on Filimbi.

Race 7 – Giant’s Causeway Stakes

I’m not getting cute here and this is a race that I will probably avoid. Free as a Bird (11) has won six in a row and overcame severe traffic trouble to win her seasonal debut at Gulfstream. She will be tough as nails and I can’t pick against her. Perhaps Richies Party Girl (1) can sneak into the number at a good price.