Illman: How I'd play Gulfstream on Sunday, Jan. 11

I'm fascinated by two horses that could wind up as overlays in the win pool. If the betting goes as expected, I will play both to win, and key them in exotics. I'm also slightly interested in a couple of longshots. While my opinion of these horses isn't as strong, I'll lightly stab at them.

Race 5

J. QUIRK (#5, 12-1 morning line) must return from a very long layoff, but she's shown potential and has faced some tough customers. In her debut, she ran second to the eventual five-time graded winner Stopchargingmaria. Following a big break, she returned in a race that produced three future stakes-winners (Size, Princess Violet, Snowbell).

J. Quirk then suffered through a rotten trip in her turf debut at Belmont before stretching out to a route for the first time, a maiden special weight June 15 at Belmont. J. Quirk prompted the pace from the outside and dug in to finish fourth behind Crown Queen, a $1.6 million half-sister to Royal Delta. For Crown Queen, that race began a four-start win streak that culminated in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland in the fall.

While J. Quirk obviously has some physical problems that have limited her to only four starts through the first few weeks of her 4-year-old campaign, her trainer, Gary Contessa, does very well with long-layoff runners. According to Daily Racing Form Formulator, Contessa is 18-4-2-3 with a $9.46 ROI over the past five years with turf routers returning from a layoff of 180 days or greater.

J. Quirk has some positional speed, figures fresh off the bench and should be close to the pace. I'll play her to win at 9-1 or greater and will use her in exotics with RAMBLE (#7, 5-2), THINKING OF MOM (#6, 20-1), and CHARMING HEART (#2, 15-1).

Race 10

The two favorites on the morning line, WHISPERING ANGEL (#6, 5-2) and ALL IN FUN (#2, 3-1) look solid on paper. The former missed the break by about three lengths in her debut yet still came with a determined wide bid to run down the leaders in the stretch. It appears this Pletcher-trained filly has talent, but what if she breaks poorly again versus this tougher bunch? I don't want to take that chance at a short price.

All in Fun adds Lasix for Shug, and has better positional speed, but she was getting very tired in the stretch of her maiden win. She also has been away for almost three months.

Instead, I'm going with LITTLE ROOSTER (#1, 4-1), a filly purchased privately following a professional maiden win in Ireland over the summer. She rated kindly behind the leaders, made the lead in the stretch and dug in gamely to prevail over a field that produced two next-out winners.

Trainer Wayne Catalano usually doesn’t receive these European imports, but he does well off this kind of layoff. Over the past four years, Catalano is 10-4-1-1 with a $3.13 ROI in turf routes following layoffs of 180 days or greater after a trainer switch.

Little Rooster drew inside and can save valuable ground from the start. I'll take her to win at 7-2 or greater and will use her in exotics with the two favorites.

Now, for the longshots.

Race 9

The thought here is that I neither love nor trust the favorites. TASMONA (#1, 7-2) will take money based on her connections, but she didn't impress me in New York last year and has been away since opening weekend at Saratoga.

DOUBLE THE ENERGY (#4, 4-1) is a consistent mare who likes Gulfstream, but her good races were for trainer Linda Rice, and she now moves into a barn that is 0 for 30 over the past five years at Gulfstream.

I generally avoid horses cutting back to abbreviated sprints on turf, and I will admit it's very possible that MARE ON FIRE (#10, 10-1) is using this race, her first since late August, as a prep for something longer down the road. The filly did show some ability routing at Monmouth over the summer, however, and is not facing a very strong field today.

Mare On Fire gets a small win play at double-digit odds. Exotic-minded players could try to hook her up with Double the Energy, SUNRISE KITTY (#2, 9-2) and MAID IN HEAVEN (#3, 10-1).

Race 11

Trainer Wesley Ward has an uncoupled entry, and most fans will gravitate to POW WOW PAL (#7, 7-2 ML). That colt was bet for both dirt starts and showed good speed against solid competition. He certainly can win his turf debut, but I'll zag to GREEN GOLD (#5, 8-1).

By the excellent first-turf sire Street Boss, Green Gold hails from a female family chock full of European grass influences. He really should appreciate switching surfaces after showing speed for a half-mile in his debut.

I'll play Green Gold lightly to win at 8-1 odds or greater but admit that this is a spread race in the multiple-leg wagers.

Handicappers looking for good value also could use SEA STORM (#8, 8-1), HONORS (#1, 20-1), LITTLE BALTAR (#3, 5-1), and MAGNANIMOUS MINE (#2, 20-1) as alternatives to the shorter-priced contenders.