Illman: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, March 7

Saturday's Gulfstream card features three graded stakes, including the rescheduled Swale at seven furlongs for 3-year-olds. That sprint marks the 3-year-old debut of the talented Daredevil (1), a Todd Pletcher-trained colt who was so impressive winning his first two career starts. With Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 107, plus a Grade 1 victory, under his girth, Daredevil will be well-backed on Saturday and is the most likely winner of the Swale.

I'm betting against him.

It's not that I think he's overhyped or untalented. His merits are obvious are paper and he is probably the best horse in the race. Perhaps if anyone in this field can beat him, however, it will occur on Saturday.

Here are some reasons why:

1. Daredevil hasn't raced in more than four months. Will he be ready for a 100 percent peak effort in his first start of what could be a long and stressful campaign?

2. Both of his wins came on wet tracks. That isn't to say that Daredevil can't run on dry ground. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile debacle, his only race on fast dirt, is a throw-out more because of trip and race shape than the going. Still, we don't know if he will be as brilliant on a dry track as he was over the goo. I need to be convinced before I back a short-priced favorite. I'm not certain with Daredevil.

3. The rail post. While Daredevil has shown the ability to come from slightly off the pace, the inside draw virtually forces Javier Castellano's hand. He has X Y Jet (3) and Ready for Rye (4) to his outside. Both of those horses are quick from the gate. If Castellano rates, Daredevil could get shuffled back and stuck in behind horses. That's not an ideal spot. The other option is to send and get involved in a lively pace dispute with some quick horses. Either way, Daredevil is probably not going to be handed a candy trip.

I'm betting Senor Grits (6), a gelding who is listed at 15-1 on the morning line (he will be shorter due to the scratch of Souper Colossal. Senor Grits has done nothing wrong in his career. Although out of the trifecta in his career debut at 43-1 last fall at Keeneland, the fact that he finished a close fourth is testament to his ability.

His trainer, Ian Wilkes, has ugly statistics with first-time starters. According to Formulator, Wilkes is 3 for 118 with first-time starters in maiden special weight dirt sprints. He doesn't have them cranked first-out, yet Senor Grits ran competitively.

Senor Grits won his maiden in his second start, and then placed third in an extremely live stakes race at Laurel. Six of those horses returned as next-out winners, including Cinco Charlie (won two in a row with Beyers of 94 and 83) and Majestic Affair (won two straight with Beyers of 97 and 92).

Senor Grits made his seasonal debut at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 31. Bet down to 2-5, he received a nice inside-out trip under Julien Leparoux, and inhaled the leaders without any fuss. The runner-up in that race was purchased privately and shipped to Santa Anita, where he immediately won a starter allowance for Jerry Hollendorfer with a 76 Beyer.

Senor Grits gets pace and another furlong to work with. I'm gambling that he will run down Daredevil in the stretch.

Palm Beach Stakes

I won't try and get clever in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes as I believe that favored Night Prowler will win. While I was tempted by Eh Cumpari (8) and Divisidero (9), I am concerned that those two could be compromised by the lack of pace. Night Prowler, on the other hand, has the tactical speed to sit close to the expected moderate splits.

He's my pick, but I will fool around in the exotics with Decision Day (3), a colt making his turf debut for trainer Reade Baker. He has the speed to lead this field, his good synthetic form should translate to grass, and he has turf pedigree. The dam won at 10 furlongs on grass and has foaled four turf winners from as many runners. Decision Day is 20-1 on the morning line. He shouldn't be that high.

Gulfstream Park Handicap

The Gulfstream Park Handicap should be a barn-burner. You have the winner of the 2013 Champagne Stakes (Honor Code (1) and the winner of the 2014 Wood Memorial (Wicked Strong (2) squaring off with three-time Grade 1 hero Private Zone (5).

I will take the best price of the three, but I'm not sure which one that will be. Although Private Zone rode an intense inside speed bias in his recent Cigar Mile win, he could be the controlling speed again in his first start for high-percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Perhaps the one-turn mile suits him better than Honor Code and Wicked Strong.

If Private Zone ends up drifting off his morning line, and I believe he will, I will take him. The more I think about it, it seems like a race to simply watch and enjoy. Good luck!