Illman: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, March 5
Here are a few horses to consider at Gulfstream on Saturday. It’s a fun card highlighted by three graded stakes races and a few wide-open maiden events.
Race 9 – BOKEELIA ISLAND (#11, 4-1 morning line)
Bokeelia Island didn’t beat much in his maiden score here last month, but the half-brother to five-time Grade 1 turf winner Point of Entry sure looked like a future stakes horse. Last and on the rail throughout the first six furlongs of the 1 1/16-mile affair, Bokeelia Island swung widest turning into the straight and stormed home under a Javier Castellano hand ride to win going away. As a confirmed late runner, he’ll always be at the mercy of pace and racing luck, but this colt still has upside potential and is facing a bunch of veterans who are attempting to find their way in the ‘n1x’ optional-claiming ranks. In other words, he fits very well despite facing winners for the first time.
Bokeelia Island is 4-1 on the morning line. I’d bet him to win at 5-2 or greater, will key him in multiple-race wagers, and will use him in the verticals with logical horses like FARZ (3), CAPTAIN DIXIE (1), and BOSS MAN (9).
Race 11 – BLOFELD (#4, 6-1)
ITSAKNOCKOUT (2), VALID (5), and STANFORD (1) are the “big three” in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, but I’m going to give Blofeld another chance to revert to the good form he showed as a 2-year-old. It’s been a start-and-stop campaign for Blofeld since he won the Grade 2 Nashua, as he only raced twice last year, but he ran on willingly at the end of his seasonal debut Jan. 27. That race was at six furlongs, a distance that could be a bit sharp for Blofeld at this stage of his career. Sluggish at the start, he rallied nicely along the inside and galloped out well. The winner of the race, Candip, returned to finish second behind the Dubai-bound X Y Jet last weekend in a graded stakes at Gulfstream.
Blofeld gets to stretch out to a more comfortable distance Saturday. This is the first time he’s put two races together since the Nashua, and it appears he’s doing well in the morning. Expect to see him more forwardly placed at this distance. He’s a win proposition at 5-1 or greater, and I’d use him with Itsaknockout and Valid.
Race 5 – OLORDA (#6, 3-1)
DACITA (1) is way the horse to beat off her victory over Tepin last year in Saratoga’s Grade 2 Ballston Spa. I don’t think she appreciated the wet turf course at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup, so I will take a forgiving view of that non-effort. It will be interesting to see how she fares in her first start of the season with blinkers, however, and she is expected to go off way below her 2-1 morning line.
Olorda, also trained by Chad Brown, is my alternative. Thrown to the wolves against Lady Eli in her North American debut, she then ran a pretty fast race in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. Olorda wouldn’t have won her final start of the year, the Grade 1 Matriarch, with a clean trip, but she would have been closer if not having to check very hard in midstretch. In her good races overseas, Olorda was forwardly placed. Aside from QUIET KITTEN (2), this race lacks pace. Perhaps Julien Leparoux will have Olorda closer to the pace with the plan of getting the jump on Dacita turning for home.
I wouldn’t bet her at her morning line, but she becomes more appealing at odds of 4-1 or 9-2. At those odds, I’d play a small win bet and use her with Dacita and Quiet Kitten.
I’ll have to wait for scratches in the 10th race before I finalize my late pick four play. My top pick, SIR DUDLEY DIGGES (13), is the first horse on the also-eligible list. If he does break into the body of the race, he becomes a super-logical contender. If Sir Dudley Digges is withdrawn, I’ll focus some of my play on TOWN CLASSIC (2). The Speightstown colt showed good speed in his career debut when finishing behind three next-out 80-plus Beyer Speed Figure runners. If he displays normal second-out improvement, Town Classic should give a good account of himself. At 9-2 or better, he’s worth a win bet.
For updated selections after scratches and changes, please tune in for DRF LIVE’s video analyses beginning at 3 p.m. Eastern. I’ll be on with DRF handicappers Matt Bernier and Mike Beer.
Good luck!