Illman: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, Feb. 14

I’m looking at three potential price horses on Saturday afternoon’s card at Gulfstream.

Race 5

I am not in love with any of the favorites in this nine-furlong maiden special weight for 3-year-olds. Gold Shield (3), a $1 million yearling, already has lost at odds-on, and now must navigate a demanding distance following a three-plus month freshening. He faced the promising Frosted in his juvenile finale, but Gold Shield was under the whip a long way out, and never threatened the top two finishers.

Jambles (8) should take money based on his connections. He’s a Todd Pletcher-trained colt ridden by Javier Castellano, and that usually equals decent mutual support. Still, he was cold on the board in his debut for those two here last month, and was hard-ridden on the turn before finishing evenly in between rivals. He can improve, but I don’t want a fairly short price.

Frenchman Bay (2) and River Date (6) can certainly win. Frenchman Bay faced the talented J S Bach on Jan. 17, was bumped around at the start, and ended up widest on the far turn. Frenchman Bay made up some late ground, galloped out with gusto, and is bred to handle this additional distance.

River Date broke poorly in a one-mile heat on Jan. 8, but gave a good account in the stretch to finish third. The issue with both Frenchman Bay and River Date is those both were double-digit odds last time, and will be way shorter in this spot. I will use both in multiple-race wagers.

From a strictly single-race standpoint, however, I will take a stab with My High Roller (1). A $650,000 yearling by Bernardini, My High Roller is a half-brother to 2-year-old champion Stevie Wonderboy. He raced evenly when behind River Date and Jambles in that one-turn mile, and my feeling is that he will benefit from the inside post at this added distance. He’s 10-1 on the morning line, and I’m projecting improvement in his third lifetime start.

Race 10

I will readily admit that Merry Meadow (4) is the horse to beat, but I’m going to give Wildcat Lily (5) a try in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes. She showed some ability at 3, winning the Grade 3 Azalea Stakes before finishing second in both the Grade 1 Prioress Stakes and Grade 1 Test Stakes. She tailed off at 4, but seems to be returning to her good form. Three starts back, she finished second to Merry Meadow at big odds despite her rider losing the whip in the stretch.
Last time out, in a weaker optional claimer over a sealed, sloppy track, Wildcat Lily gave a sparkling performance. Sure, she didn’t beat up on much, but she never got out of a canter, winning by 9 1/2 lengths with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. She wheels back on short notice following that effort, and her confidence could be the highest it has been in a long time.

Wildcat Lily is 5-1 on the morning line, and has enough speed to keep the swift More Than a Party honest in the early stages. I’m somewhat concerned about the 6 1/2-furlong distance as she seems stronger at six furlongs, but Wildcat Lily is the play, nonetheless. Merry Meadow also gets my money in multiple-race bets.

Race 11

I’m hoping that folks have written off I’m Already Sexy (4) after her third straight off-the-board finish. The multiple Grade 3 winner didn’t have the easiest trip in the Endeavour Stakes two weeks ago at Tampa Bay Downs, and should appreciate this class relief in the listed Cooper City Handicap. A mare that likes to be forwardly-placed, I’m Already Sexy was taken back behind horses along the inside and ended up last on the rail turning for home. She closed with some interest (she finished her final 2 1/2 furlongs in 29.70 seconds), however, and galloped out well.

While I’m Already Sexy probably won’t make the lead with other speeds entered, she can find a good tracking position. The slight cut-back in distance could work in her favor, and she might get the jump on the late-runners turning for home. She’s 4-1 on the morning line, and is fair value at that price against this competition.