Illman: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, Dec. 27

I’ll concentrate on four interesting races at Gulfstream on Saturday. There are three graded stakes on the card, and you can preview them here.

The race with the most potential for chaos is the 10th, the Grade 3 W. L. McKnight Handicap at 1 1/2 miles on turf. I don’t particularly trust the two morning-line favorites, SLUMBER (6) and NORTH SLOPE (3). Both come out of the $100,000 Bowl Game Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 19, won by North Slope, and both had pretty good trips. Slumber sat the pocket in behind the leader, eased out turning for home, and had every chance, only to come up short. That was his first start off a long layoff, and he could be sharper for this assignment, but he’s underachieved for most of his career, and is questionable at this distance. Slumber sold for $200,000 at public auction last month and is now with Chad Brown. While he can certainly win, I won’t burn my fingers on the short price.

North Slope pressed moderate-to-slow fractions in the Bowl Game, was late to change leads, and still had enough to fend off Slumber while outfinishing the inconsistent Micromanage. He’s in good form for Kiaran McLaughlin. I do wonder about his ability at this distance.

Instead, I’ll chase a couple of price horses. MANCHURIAN HIGH (7) proved that he can handle the distance with a rallying victory in the $100,000 Laurel Turf Cup on Sept. 27. He was floated widest turning for home, but still finished his final quarter in a swift 22.55 seconds. Manchurian High has really turned it around since being switched over to this barn. All the 6-year-old needs is a little pace to help his late kick. He’s 12-1 on the morning line.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of pace in the McKnight, and MIDNIGHT ARIA (12) could attempt to steal it on the front end. The gate-to-wire winner of the 2013 Queen’s Plate over Polytrack, Midnight Aria then went to the sidelines for over a year. He returned to the winner’s circle three back, faced a real toughie in Luke’s Alley in the Grade 2 Autumn, and simply didn’t like the dirt in the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup last time out. It’s quite possible that he’s a better horse on synthetic, but he has some ability, some speed, and will be a great price (30-1 on the morning line). Please note that there was significant rain in South Florida yesterday. Manchurian High and Midnight Aria are unproven over wet turf so I'll tread more lightly than usual.

I prefer more logical horses in the other graded events. The Grade 3 La Prevoyante Handicap is carded as the eighth race, and IRISH MISSION (12) looks tough dropping out of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. She was simply overmatched in that spot, but should appreciate today’s class relief. She’s a hulking mare – about 17 hands – and won’t have any problem with this 12-furlong trip. While the outside post is a bit worrisome, Irish Mission has enough speed to grab a forward spot without losing too much ground on the first of three turns. She has a strong Beyer Speed Figure edge over most of this field.

Unfortunately, Irish Mission won’t offer much value to win (3-1 seems fair), and her wet turf form is merely fair. I’ll try to hook her up in exactas with JULIE’S LOVE (7) and PHOTO CALL (3). The former is an in-and-outer with some ability. If you go back three starts to her most recent firm-turf effort, she ran a solid third in her first race following a long layoff. She has enough speed to be close to the pace. Her very best race puts her in the picture at a price. Photo Call displayed a ton of talent in taking her North American debut over three next-out winners, but that race was at a mile, and she’ll get a major test stretching out four furlongs in here. Again, the condition of the turf course will be key. If it is very soft, you may want to upgrade horses with wet-turf form.

I don’t think the ninth race, the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes, came up very strong. SPEECHIFY (6) pressed the pace over a speed-friendly Gulfstream West course en route to winning the Kenny Noe Jr. on Nov. 16. But he’s never run a bad dirt sprint, draws a comfortable outside post position, and can work out a trip tracking the speeds while in the clear. He should be tough right back, albeit at a short number. SIMMSTOWN (8) and CALAMONDIN (3) are strong exotic candidates, although they’ll also take their share of money. Simmstown has been away a long time and Calamondin gets a major class test. I’m not sure Speechify is worth a win bet. Instead, I’ll key him in multiple-race wagers and will use with Simmstown in the single-race exotics.

The fourth race on the card is a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. All of them are first-time starters. Most bettors will gravitate to one of the two Todd Pletcher-trained firsters, OVERCONTROL (4) and MATERIALITY (5). Combined, they cost $1.125 million at public auction. I prefer the Overcontrol, a son of Tapit who sold for $725,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.10 seconds. Both of the first two dams were stakes-winning sprinters, and Overcontrol figures to show good speed here.

Underneath, I'll use some price horses. SUPER C ME (9) wasn't very popular at public auction ($6,000 short yearling, $4,000 yearling, $13,000 juvenile), but his pedigree is sneakily geared to debut success. His sire, Any Given Saturday, is 62-9-7-4 (15%) for a $2.56 return on investment with first-time starters this year. His damsire is Ghazi, and Ghazi broodmares are 8 for 32 (25%) for a positive ROI with first-time starters over the last two years. Plus, Super C Me is a half-sister to Indy's Alexandra, a filly who won her first two starts as a 2-year-old by a combined 17 1/4 lengths. She should be a huge price, and is nothing more than a stab for a barn that is 0 for 32 over the past five years with first-time starters on dirt, but I'm interested in seeing how she'll perform.

Also keep an eye on MOUNTAIN CRY (2), a Marylou Whitney-owned colt trained by Nick Zito. The barn rarely wins first out, so he could merely be a learning run, but the workouts look solid, and this one's pedigree suggests he may be a runner with more experience and distance. He's a half to Mountain Town (second in the Grade 1 Champagne after a rare Zito debut win) out of a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winners Birdstone and Bird Town.