Illman: How I'd play Churchill Downs for Thursday, Nov. 26

Here are some thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day card at Churchill Downs.

Race 6
When last seen in the middle of May, it appeared that GAMBLER’S GHOST (#2, 3-1 morning line) was beginning to fulfill his potential. A $150,000 purchase, Gambler’s Ghost ran a quick 93 Beyer Speed Figure when handling $50,000 claimers in professional fashion and was flattered when two of the horses he dusted returned to win.

While the subsequent six-month layoff is concerning, it’s worth noting that Gambler’s Ghost runs very well fresh. Two of his three victories have come following layoffs of 45 days or greater.

Also, Gambler’s Ghost’s trainer, Eddie Kenneally, boasts promising numbers with these kind of horses. According to Formulator, Kenneally is 4 for 9 (44%) with a $3.38 ROI over the past four years with last-out dirt winners returning from 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints.

Gambler’s Ghost has good speed and might be quicker from the stalls than his main pace rivals. I’ll play Gambler’s Ghost to win at 7-2 odds or greater and will use him in exotic wagers with newly gelded McQ (#7, 12-1) and READY GET SET (#6, 2-1)

Race 10
I don’t want to have too much money in against MESSI (#6, 9-5) in the Grade 3 River City Handicap. The gelding invaded with somewhat of a reputation from his native Germany this summer, and has now won three of four races in the United States.

Last early off a slow pace in the Grade 3 Knickerbocker Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 10, Messi eased to the four path in upper stretch and resolutely wore down pacesetting Cage Fighter in the shadow of the wire.

Messi may not get a scorching pace to attack on Thursday, but this nine-furlong distance is right in his wheelhouse. He appears to be the best horse in the race and looms a likely winner at a short price.

Exotics-minded handicappers might want to also use ARE YOU KIDDING ME (#4, 5-2) and PERFECT TITLE (#5, 15-1). Are You Kidding Me was able to save ground over an inside-friendly Polytrack surface when taking the Grade 2 Autumn Stakes at Woodbine, andhas races on turf that make him tough. His tactical speed should allow him to get the jump on Messi turning for home.

Perfect Title’s only poor turf race came when in over his head against Big Blue Kitten and Slumber in New York. He’s found his niche since being switched to turf, but is another that needs some pace help up front. HEART TO HEART (#3, 2-1) appears the controlling speed, but might find the distance a bit long.

Race 11
I’ll concentrate my play on two horses in the Grade 2 Fall City Handicap. TIZ SO SWEET (#1, 5-1) is at her best when allowed to control the early action, and John Velazquez figures to be aggressive with her after breaking from the inside post. The daughter of Tiznow is extremely comfortable at this trip and should be a very strong pace factor if allowed a breather on the backstretch.

AHH CHOCOLATE (#6, 12-1) lost ground from start to finish with a four-wide journey in the Grade 2 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill, but was very game to grab second from the classy Gold Medal Dancer in the late stages. Her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 88 came in her lone try at this distance, the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico. That race had a glacial pace, and although Ahh Chocolate was compromised by the slow fractions and a wide trip, she still ran on for third. My guess is that she’ll appreciate getting back out around two turns.

I’d bet Tiz So Sweet to Win at 6-1 or greater, will use both Tiz So Sweet and Ahh Chocolate in the multiple-race exotics, and will key them on top of FRIVOLOUS (#5, 3-1) and CHIDE (#12, 5-1) in exactas and trifectas.

Have a wonderful holiday!