Illman: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, Oct. 26

Let’s make the most of closing day at Belmont as the upcoming Aqueduct meeting brings with it the impending arrival of curmudgeonly Old Man Winter.

Race 9: Turnback the Alarm

I like #1 TAPIT’S WORLD in today’s featured ninth race, the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm Handicap, and will try to key her in multiple-race wagers. Also, if she goes off at close to her 7-2 morning line, I will play her to win.

I really thought Tapit’s World was a hard-luck runner-up Aug. 9 in the Grade 3 Gardenia Stakes at Ellis Park. While the odds-on winner Molly Morgan had a perfect trip tracking the moderate to slow pace from the two path, Tapit’s World raced in the middle of the strip at the back of the pack. Not only did she have to overcome a lack of pace, but she gave ground throughout. Tapit’s World still advanced with a four-wide bid on the far turn. She battled Molly Morgan all the way to the wire, missed by a dirty head, and galloped out with gusto.

The Gardenia produced the next-out stakes-winner Quiet Success, as well as three others that returned to place in stakes races.

Tapit’s World will make her first start under the tutelage of Michelle Nevin. A blind bet on every Nevin starter over the last two years has produced 22 percent winners and a $2.30 ROI.

Tapit’s World has a bit more speed than she showed at Ellis Park. Hopefully, she can stay close to the pace and pounce when the real racing begins on the final bend.

Race 8: Idle American

The eighth race features #4 ENERGY SPIRIT, a Todd Pletcher-trained gelding who overcame gobs of trouble to win his debut at a whopping 26-1 last month. Energy Spirit broke three lengths slow, saved ground at the back of the pack, and was blind-switched when attempting to rally three wide on the turn. He eventually maneuvered out four deep and kicked strongly to win. That race was flattered when three of his vanquished rivals returned to win.

Perhaps this heat is as simple as playing Energy Spirit, but I’ve been chasing #7 IDLE AMERICAN since last year and don’t know when to quit.

Idle American had a very tough trip on turf at Aqueduct last fall (Nov. 9, 2013, to be exact). He was pinballed at the start, raced far behind the leaders, was floated six wide turning for home, and still was beaten only a head. It took trainer Pat Kelly more than five months and six dirt races to get Idle American back on turf, and the 6-year-old responded with a runner-up effort behind the razor-sharp Front, a horse in the midst of a three-race win streak.

Following a dull dirt line, Idle American returns from a five-month freshening. Perhaps I’ve been completely wrong regarding his talent level, but I believe he fits here at a very good price. I’ll play him to win and key him with Energy Spirit and, to a lesser extent, #12 OCALA JIM.

Race 3: Savvy Sassy

I’m generally leery of playing last-out maiden winners at short prices, but #5 SAVVY SASSY was very impressive, albeit over a muddy track, in her career debut last month. Trained by Christophe Clement, Savvy Sassy zipped to the front, dueled the favored Remarkable into the ground (she would finish last, beaten 20 lengths), and won under mild hands-and-heels urging from Irad Ortiz Jr.

She seems the most likely winner of the third race, although angle players could flock to #7 STORM SWEPT. That one goes second off the layoff after chasing the talented Princess Violet and now adds blinkers for a barn that has had tremendous recent success with that move (Classic Point, Effinex, Wicked Strong).

I’ll stand with Savvy Sassy in multiple-race wagers.