Illman: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Oct. 18

There could be some vulnerable favorites on Empire Showcase Saturday at Belmont. Let’s try to exploit them.

RACE 9: TICONDEROGA STAKES

Two familiar names should take significant money in the Ticonderoga.

#10 DISCREET MARQ is not only the fastest horse (any of her last 10 Beyer Speed Figures would be the best last-race number), but she is taking a huge class drop after competing in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland two weeks ago. She is a dominant contender on paper, but I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Discreet Marq this year. Not only has she failed to reach the winner’s circle, but she’s shown a tendency to hang badly, as evidenced by the fact that she hasn’t gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in her last six races. Perhaps Discreet Marq has seen better days. While she can certainly win this race, she is going to be bet off the board, and I have a feeling she isn’t as sharp as those speed figures indicate.

#9 EFFIE TRINKET is another hard-hitting filly who hasn’t won a race in 2014. The defending Ticonderoga champion, Effie Trinket makes her third start of the form cycle for Rick Violette and should get some pace to attack. Like Discreet Marq, however, she hasn’t shown much stretch pop lately. Plus, she was the beaten chalk in three of her last four starts and changed leads awkwardly when third in the Yaddo. I’m not sure she’s worth the hassle if she goes off at less than her 9-2 morning line.

I believe the “now” filly in this division is #5 INVADING HUMOR, who has rattled off four consecutive victories for trainer Bruce Levine. While her Beyers aren’t in Discreet Marq’s range, she sure looked good in winning the John Hettinger over the inner turf course Sept. 14.

In the Hettinger, Invading Humor tangled early with Princess Mara. That one backed out on the turn and would eventually finish last. With five-sixteenths to race, Invading Humor was then confronted by two other rivals. They couldn’t get the best of her. Invading Humor then had enough left to fend off Strike Accord’s late charge. Invading Humor did all the racing in the Hettinger and still beat five of the gals she’ll face today.

She has the tactical speed to be close to the pace and should be in the thick of things when the field turns into the stretch. She’s 7-2 on the morning line and is worth a win bet at those odds or greater. In the multiple-race wagers, I’ll back up with Discreet Marq as well as the improving #1A CHRYSOLITE.

• Another big Beyer performer will be heavily favored in today’s third race, the $250,000 Maid of the Mist Stakes for juvenile fillies at a flat mile. I don’t want to knock #9 TEMPER MINT PATTY too much because she’s so lightly raced that she could be any kind. But I also can’t take something-to-5 on a horse who earned her big number thanks to a perfect trip over a sealed, muddy track and now must stretch out to a route for the first time.

Instead, I’ll go with #7 SANDRA, a well-bred filly coming off a big win at seven furlongs over a fast track. Her trainer, Tom Bush, doesn’t do well with juvenile debut runners (0 for 35, only five top-three finishes over the past five years, according to Formulator), so the fact that Sandra was 5-1 for her coming-out party Sept. 12 says something about how the connections feel about her. Plus, she ran a solid race, rallying belatedly for fourth over a speed-favoring track.

Not surprisingly, Sandra improved by leaps and bounds three weeks later. She’s a half-sister to the good sprinter Dust and Diamonds and has some upside potential. She’s worth betting at her morning line of 6-1, and I’ll use her and #6 QUEZON to try to upend the favorite in the multiples.

• The fourth race is the $200,000 Mohawk Stakes for some salty male turf performers, and it features the familiar names of #1 KHARAFA, #3 KING KREESA, and #9 LUBASH.

Lubash got the best trip when he beat the other two in the Ashley T. Cole Stakes, and there is always the possibility that King Kreesa and an eager Kharafa will butt heads early, setting things up for a late runner.

I wasn’t thrilled with #8 NOTACATBUTALLAMA’s most recent run in the Cole, but perhaps he regressed following two career-best efforts at Saratoga. He is certainly good enough to run with the “big” three, and his positional speed should have him in behind the leaders. I’m guessing that Notacatbutallama will be lukewarm on the tote. At his morning-line price of 6-1, I’ll gamble that he’ll revert to one of his competitive performances.

• Taking a quick peek at some of the other races, I prefer #2 OSTROLENKA to #7 GOOD LUCK GUS in the second, the $250,000 Sleepy Hollow Stakes for juveniles, and will use #8 SIOUX and #2 SINISTRA to take down morning-line favorite #3 SARATOGA SNACKS in the featured Empire Classic.