Illman: How I'd play Belmont for Saturday, May 23
To be perfectly honest, I find Saturday's card at Belmont extremely unappealing. It is made up of short fields full of logical low-priced favorites. It is not a card I'm playing with gusto.
After perusing the past performances, I will key the following two horses in multiple-race wagers and bet them to win if they meet my odds requirements:
Race 5 - Claiming
I'm against the two morning-line favorites. After watching Liberal Spin (7) a couple of times at Fair Grounds, I'm sick of his act. He has some ability, but is his own worst enemy. Just watch him in the stretch of his last two turf races. He changes leads on multiple occasions and never gives himself an opportunity to gather momentum. He can win on Saturday, but I don't want the hassle at a short price.
Non Stop (2) has more early speed than he has shown recently and looks to be rounding into form in the third start of the form cycle. He also gets a big rider switch to Joel Rosario. Non Stop was no match for favored Mish Mosh on May 2 and just didn't show much pop when outrun on the final turn. I'm looking for a better effort as he drops in for $20,000, but he could be getting a little long in the tooth and figures to take his share of money.
Instead, I will try Saint Finian (1), a colt that just won on dirt, but is certainly capable on grass as evidenced by his game neck victory at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 1. He was claimed out of his most recent start by Emron Ibrahim, a low-profile trainer that sent out newly haltered Conticinio to score at 25-1 on New Year's Eve 2013. Saint Finian wheels back on 10 days’ rest and shouldn't be too far off the early pace.
I will play Saint Finian to win at 5-1 or greater and will use him in exotics with Non Stop and Luigi P (4), a 10-year-old returning from a gigantic layoff. Prior to the benching, Luigi P ran some decent turf sprints and can crack the number at huge odds.
Race 6 - Allowance
Amber Morning (3) swung four wide turning for home in the slower division of first-level allowances for statebreds on April 30 and was making up some late ground in the stretch. She gets another furlong to work with as well as more pace to attack, and that could make all the difference on Saturday. Her trainer, John Toscano, has sent out some very live horses this year and Amber Morning should be rallying once more in the stretch.
I will play Amber Morning to win at 5-1 or greater and will use her in exotics with the following:
Barrier to Entry (5) - May have been handled too aggressively last time when shot out to the lead in the faster division on April 30. She hung on quite well for second and seems to be moving into form.
Sweetpollypurebrd (9) – Lightly raced 4-year-old got a little leg-weary in her first start of the year and should be tighter for this performance. We probably haven't seen her best.
While I readily admit that Alexandrie (6) can win off the bench for Pletcher, she rode a very slow pace to victory in her lone turf race to date and will likely have to go much faster in the opening furlongs of this heat. I will try to beat her at a short number.
Chalk players could do worse than lean heavily on Hope Cross (6, race 3), A Lot (8, race 8), and May Flowers (7, race 9) in multiple-race wagers.