Illman: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, June 27
How will I play Belmont on Saturday? With extreme caution.
Despite a full field in the feature, the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, and a couple of other interesting races, I had tons of trouble coming up with strong opinions. Instead, I’ll attempt to make lemonade from lemons by keying the following horses in multiple-race wagers and playing them to win if they meet my personal value-line requirements:
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight
Gangster (4): Morning Line (3-1), Value Line (4-1)
Would it really surprise anyone if Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez put over another first-time starter in New York? Gangster, a $140,000 yearling by the excellent debut stallion Street Boss, is the first starter out of three-time Grade 2 stakes winner Miss Isella. While Miss Isella did her best running around two turns, she did win her maiden sprinting. I’d expect Pletcher to have Gangster ready to roll at 6 1/2 furlongs.
Here’s the problem: I doubt Gangster will meet my value-line requirement. If he does, it probably means he’s ice-cold on the tote. I’ll play him as an ‘A’ in my very light multiple-race wagers and pray he can run a little bit.
Race 6 – Allowance
The Big Deluxe (6): Morning Line (5-1), Value Line (6-1)
Victory Is Sweet (2) seems the most likely winner based on the gigantic speed figures earned in his last two races and is a must-use in the multiples. Still, he showed up with front wraps for the Chick Lang at Pimlico and outran his odds after setting the pace over an inside, speed-friendly surface. The maiden win at Aqueduct also came over a speed track, and he went gate-to-wire in that race. Perhaps he’s not as good as he appears on paper.
The Big Deluxe has nine lifetime wins. The rest of the field combined has 12 career victories. While The Big Deluxe is stepping up in class after clearing his New York-bred conditions on May 15, he appears to have improved drastically since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. His recent numbers are in Victory Is Sweet’s ballpark, and his good tactical speed should have him hounding the favorite from the outside.
Race 7 – Claiming
Queenofzeenile (2): Morning Line (7-2), Value Line (5-1)
The morning-line favorite, Be Nice Or Leave (8), hasn’t raced in over a year, so this looks like a good race to take a shot. There doesn’t appear to be much speed in the race apart from Outer Orbit (1), and it is imperative that Jose Lezcano keeps Mid-Atlantic invader Queenofzeenile closer to the pace than she was at Pimlico on May 15. In that race, she was outsprinted through some quick fractions before rallying decently through minor traffic. Saturday’s start will be her third as a 4-year-old, and she seems well spotted in this conditioned claimer.
Resolute Babe (4) wouldn’t be the worst longer-priced play to include in the exotics as she makes her second start off the layoff with some tactical zip.
Race 9 – Mother Goose Stakes (G1)
Wonder Gal (10): Morning Line (3-1), Value Line (4-1)
Wonder Gal ran a big race to finish third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and has endured a stop-and-start campaign in 2015. The poor winter weather in New York compromised her training to the point that trainer Leah Gyarmati was forced to start Wonder Gal’s season in the nine-furlong Gazelle Stakes. That distance is a bit far for Wonder Gal, and it certainly didn’t help that she raced wide in a paceless race dominated by a favored front-runner.
Then, when preparing for the Kentucky Oaks, Wonder Gal came down with a foot ailment that knocked her out of consideration for that prestigious race. Instead, she raced with a bar shoe in the Grade 1 Acorn on June 6. Although lucky to escape the start unscathed (several horses, including the winner, were compromised badly), Wonder Gal ran well to finish third. Back in only three weeks, it appears as if she’s over her physical issues.
The problem is the price. Once again, I’m not sure I’ll get my value-line odds on Wonder Gal. I’ll play her as an ‘A’ in the multiples but wouldn’t argue with anyone who also uses Embellish the Lace (1), Include Betty (2), and Danessa Deluxe (8).
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight
Tinto Mesa (8): Morning Line (4-1), Value Line (5-1)
A $310,000 yearling who hasn’t panned out on dirt, Tinto Mesa will attempt a reboot as he makes his turf debut as a first-time gelding. Be warned: This dirt-to-turf move with maidens is not a Todd Pletcher specialty, but I’m not thrilled with the horses with prior grass experience. There’s a smidge of turf and synthetic pedigree here, so I’ll expect some improvement from Tinto Mesa and hope it’s enough to get him over the hump.
Logical horses like Security Risk (7), Wild Dynaformer (2), and Doc Curlin (11) are all worth including in the late pick four.
Best of luck!