Illman: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, June 20
Saturday’s card at Belmont features the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses Handicap for fillies and mares traveling seven furlongs.
I'm going to key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my personal value line requirements:
Race 2 – Corner Three (#3, 5-1 morning line, 6-1 value line)
Chad Brown’s other first-time starter, Style Drift (4), projects to attract most of the attention. After all, she’s the regular workmate of the stakes winner Partisan Politics and is by the grass-loving stallion English Channel. I believe Style Drift could wind up the better of the two debuting Brown runners, but it’s worth noting English Channel is not exactly a win-early stallion (1 for 24 with all debut runners in 2015). Perhaps Style Drift will improve with a race under her belt.
Instead, I’ll try Style Drift’s uncoupled stablemate. Corner Three is by Scat Daddy, a solid debut stallion with good overall turf numbers. A mere $30,000 RNA as a yearling, she’s out of a Cozzene mare that already has dropped a turf winner. According to the invaluable DRF Clocker Report, Corner Three’s breeze June 3 went “in company with Fila Primera. Well matched, they came home going easily in 24.95 and galloped out in 1:04.53.” Fila Primera isn’t a slouch. A debut winner on turf last year, she then finished third as the favorite in the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland.
I’ll play Corner Three to win at 6-1 or greater and will use both Brown runners in the multiple-race wagers.
Race 5 – Weekend Express (#7, 4-1 morning line, 3-1 value line)
Weekend Express didn’t beat much in a $50,000 starter allowance May 29, but he won with complete authority. Not only was the race fast, but it was visually impressive as well. He tracked a loose pacesetter from second, inhaled that one under a very confident ride on the turn, and drew away to win by six. He’s cross-entered Saturday in the Stanton Stakes at Delaware and would be a contender if trainer Tim Hills opts for that spot. Keep an eye on Weekend Express, a colt that seems to be coming into his own on the turf.
Ready Strike (2), shedding blinkers and adding Javier Castellano for the third start of the form cycle, is a late-running exotics threat that could also be used in the multiples.
Race 9 – Chief of State (#5, 5-1 morning line, 7-1 value line)
This gelding paired up Beyer tops in his last two races, and that often indicates future improvement from lightly raced runners. In his most recent start, he finished ahead of Little Popsie, a Todd Pletcher-trained runner that returned to graduate with a nice 79 Beyer Speed Figure. Chief of State often is ignored at the windows – he’s cracked the board in his last three starts at odds of 16-1 or better each time – due to his low-profile connections, but he catches a maiden field without much star power. He looks a strong chance from stalking range.
Multiple-race bettors also might wish to include Thank You (2) and Apache Warrior (4).
Race 10 – Aussie Prayer (#11, 4-1 morning line, 4-1 value line)
Here’s hoping the drop into a claiming race is the answer for Aussie Prayer, a four-time maiden that lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in all starts against special-weight company. This will be her third start of the year. She switches riders to John Velazquez and may opt for rating tactics just off the speedy Jamaalaree (6). She set quick fractions last time out, and it didn’t help that Eric Cancel’s whip got caught up in another rider’s reins when Aussie Prayer was tiring in late stretch. Trainer David Donk is 4 for 13 (31 percent, $2.42 ROI) over the past two years with statebreds moving from maiden special weights to maiden claimers.
Pink Freud Live (12) is another logical contender for wagers like the late pick four.
I’ll watch the Bed o’ Roses with interest as I don’t have a strong opinion in the race. It’s the speed of La Verdad (6) versus the class of Dame Dorothy (4), a filly that should handle the distance better than her swift rival. I’d pick La Verdad, but perhaps Street Story (8) could upset with an outside stalking trip.
I can’t remember the last time a Thistledown invader won in New York, but Todd Pletcher now trains Hunt Road (#8, race 7) following a big Beyer maiden win. He very well could be the most likely winner, but before you take the short price, note that he was all out to win in Ohio and is facing much tougher opponents today.
Best of luck!