Illman: How I'd play Belmont for Saturday, June 13

Let’s try a Belmont caveman pick three beginning with the featured Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Race 5 – Poker Stakes: Perhaps Il Campione (6) will live up to his name and advance notices in the Poker, but I’m not willing to take a short price on a Southern Hemisphere 4-year-old tackling older horses, even if Chad Brown is the trainer. He showed high speed in winning El Derby in Chile on Feb. 1 as he simply brushed to the lead on the backstretch and was never threatened late. He seemed pretty green drifting in during the stretch drive while hopping back to his left lead, but it’s possible he was simply playing with inferior competition. He should be tested here.

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I will use Heart to Heart (4) and All Included (1) in the pick three. Heart to Heart could be the speed of the speed, and he ran quite well in his seasonal debut, the Grade 3 Red Bank Stakes at Monmouth on May 16. He couldn’t find his customary spot on the lead when a 31-1 shot was gunned to the front, but made a strong bid into the teeth of the pace (he ran a 45.63-second middle half, according to Formulator). He led into deep stretch before grudgingly giving way to Winning Cause late. He will be prominent turning for home in the Poker.

All Included is 3 for 3 on turf, boasts the tactical speed to sit a great ground-saving, pace-tracking trip under John Velazquez, and exits a powerful seasonal debut over this course and distance on May 10.

Race 6 – Allowance: I will try and beat Graceful Grit (1), the 5-2 morning-line favorite. She was bet down to 2-1 in her debut against the talented Mrs McDougal, and that’s a sign that this Christophe Clement-trained miss has some ability. She was very green during that race, however, and I’m not sure I can trust her at low odds considering some of the antics she displayed.

I will use Principle Equation (10) and Tap It Out (5). Principle Equation adds Lasix and blinkers for her North American debut. She was without cover in her final two starts overseas and was forced to head for home a bit early in both races. Trainer James Nicol purchased Principle Equation for $45,979 at public auction in December and has good numbers with foreign imports. Lifetime, Nicol sports a record of 10-3-3-0 with a $4.08 return on investment in North America. Some of his horses include:

War Valor – private purchase added Lasix to win his first two starts in North America (odds of 2-1 and 10-1, respectively)

National Pride – switched to Lasix and John Velazquez for his stateside debut victory at 5-1.

Hoon – purchased for $27,161 overseas, Hoon finished second at 8-1 with first-time Lasix in his North American debut.

Kune Kune – second, beaten a neck at 35-1 odds, in the $100,000 Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga.

Velazquez takes the mount on Principle Equation, who looks live on Saturday.
Tap It Out was slowly gaining ground at the end of her most recent outing, her first start following a short layoff, She can move forward with that race under her girth.

Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight: Tiz the Moment (3) is the deserving favorite exiting a fast debut effort. Still, he doesn’t have to win this start, his first since Feb. 7. He should be used in multiple-race bets, but handicappers might want to also play Knuckle Curve (1), a 4-year-old who was compromised by a stumbling start and a speed-favoring course at the Big A on April 12, and Fitzgerald (5), a swift gelding who finished ahead of two next-out winners on April 4. Fitzgerald might attempt to control the pace this time around.