Illman: How I'd play Belmont for Saturday, July 4

It's a star-spangled, stakes-laden extravaganza at Belmont on the Fourth of July.

I will key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my personal value line requirements:

Race 11, Belmont Sprint Championship - The Big Beast (2) - Morning Line (7-2) - Value Line (5-2)

I am way against favored Private Zone (3). He is a classy and swift performer, to be sure, but I wonder if his excellent third-place finish in last month's Metropolitan Handicap took the starch out of him. He worked extremely hard every step of the way in the Met Mile, dueling reigning Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern into the ground before assuming a clear lead on the turn.
At that point, Private Zone looked understandably exhausted. He hopped onto his right lead very early, drifted out considerably in the stretch, and switched back to his left lead late in the game. What's worrisome is that Private Zone does not have a history of these multiple late lead changes.
He faces some other tough speed challenges in the Belmont Sprint Championship, and will be a very short price on the tote.

I really like The Big Beast in this spot. Although he finished outside the trifecta for the first time in his career in his most recent outing, the Grade 1 Carter Handicap on April 4, he had no chance the way the trip and race dynamics played out.

A behemoth of a colt, The Big Beast probably didn't like being in and among horses during the backstretch run. He then attempted a very wide bid in a paceless race that was dominated by horses saving ground throughout. He finished well, galloped out great, and has been given plenty of time by trainer Tony Dutrow.

The Big Beast likely gets a completely different race flow this time around and the seven furlongs will hit him right between the eyes. He should be rallying stoutly in the stretch and can upend Private Zone late.

Race 7 - Dwyer Stakes - Speightster (6) - Morning Line (3-1) - Value Line (3-1)

I think you're supposed to try and beat Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (4) as he returns from an injury-induced layoff at short odds in a race that is probably a prep for something more prestigious like the Haskell or Travers.

Trainer Bill Mott is 3 for 80 over the past year with first-time starters. When he sends out one that scores by seven lengths with a 90 Beyer, it's likely the horse has serious ability.

After Speightster dusted that field at Keeneland, he came right back with a similarly impressive try against older horses at Belmont. Off a beat slow, he rushed up to track the pace while pocketed along the inside. He had no issue with the dirt being kicked in his face, split rivals on the turn, and went about his business to win under a strong hand ride.

Speightster received a 98 Beyer for that entry-level allowance victory. He drew a good outside post position in the Dwyer and can track the speeds while in the clear. The extra distance shouldn't be a problem as his dam is a full sister to Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Dance Smartly.

I will use him as an 'A' in multiple-race wagers with the two Todd Pletcher-trained entrants, Tommy Macho (3) and Blofeld (1) as backups.

Race 8 - Belmont Derby Invitational - Bolo (2) - Morning Line (7-2) - Value Line (3-1)

I'm not sure if Bolo is as talented as Divisidero (3). I do know that he has a major pace advantage over his main rival. Before the connections came down with Kentucky Derby fever, Bolo looked on his way to becoming a rock-solid turf runner. He wasn't disgraced on dirt and returned to turf with a comfortable gate-to-wire victory over hopelessly-overmatched horses.

While Bolo takes a strong hike in class and distance, he should be in front soon after the start, and can control this race under Rafael Bejarano. If the other riders give Bejarano an inch, he can take 1 1/4 miles with this talented runner.

In multiple-race wagers, I will also use Divisidero and the two European runners, Canndal (4) and Postulation (7) in good doses. The backups include Startup Nation (8) and Force the Pass (5).

Race 10 - Belmont Oaks Invitational - Consumer Credit (7) - Morning Line (12-1), Value Line (10-1)

The undefeated Lady Eli (2) is way the horse to beat in the Belmont Oaks, but she has not traveled 10 furlongs in her career, and I don't want to find out if that's not her game at a short price.

Instead, I will try her uncoupled stablemate, Consumer Credit, a filly that raced 1 1/4 miles in the American Oaks at Santa Anita on May 30. In that race, Consumer Credit followed favorite and eventual winner, Spanish Queen (6) on the backstretch.
Turning for home, Spanish Queen angled out for a clear run, but Consumer Credit stayed down inside. As Spanish Queen set sail for the wire, Consumer Credit was blocked badly. By the time she extricated herself from her traffic woes the race was all but over.

There is some pace in this race that should help both Lady Eli and Consumer Credit. I will take the better odds and will use both in the multiple-race wagers. Perhaps Daring Duchess (12) is usable in the exotics at a square mutuel as well.

Here are quick hits for some of the other races:

Race 5 – I will try to beat first-time turf runner Ready for Rye (7) with either Zandar (5) or Barrel of Love (6). Zandar is a lightly raced runner with tons of upside while Barrel of Love overcame a bad stumble at the break to defeat New York-breds in the manner of a 2- 5 shot on May 20. Don't be turned off that Barrel of Love was claimed from Chad Brown by Diane Balsamo. Balsamo has won 16 percent of her starts over the last five years with a $2.52 return on investment.

Race 6 - Irish Jasper (5) put it all together once blinkers were removed. She gets a strong pace to attack in the Victory Ride and should be used in multiple-race wagers along with Enchanting Lady (2).

Race 9 - Don't want to have too much money in against Tonalist (6), but I can't let Mylute (3) take me down at a solid price. Mylute looked like a new horse in his first race for Todd Pletcher and can call upon his back class in the Suburban.

Good luck and have a great holiday!