Illman: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, July 11
There are some intriguing horses racing at Belmont this Saturday. I'll key them in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my personal value-line requirements.
Race 3 – Maiden special weight – Liam’s Prince (5) – morning line: 12-1, value line: 9-1
Bow Tie Boss (6) looks like the horse to beat in this maiden affair. The 3-year-old colt has faced such talented runners as Daredevil, Knuckle Curve, and Tommy Macho and now finds a nice spot to graduate. While he should be played in multiple-race wagers, it’s worth noting he hasn’t gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in his career and will be an awfully short price.
I’ll try to beat him with Liam’s Prince, a first-time starter out of an unraced half-sister to the Grade 2-placed router Conquest Curlinate and the Grade 3-placed router Tapit’s World. Checking the workout tabs from Saratoga last summer, it appeared Liam’s Prince was then trained by Ken McPeek. Following a long layoff, he resurfaces with Michelle Nevin and shows some quick workouts leading up to the debut.
The June 4 workout really catches the eye:
Aqueduct
Liam’s Prince – 4 furlongs – 48.84 breezing
Knuckle Curve – 4 furlongs – 48.84 breezing
A week after this workout, Knuckle Curve graduated at Belmont for Nevin and jockey Cornelio Velasquez with a whopping 102 Beyer. Perhaps the two worked in company that morning at the Big A. Velasquez takes the mount on Liam’s Prince, and he should offer good odds.
The main concern, oddly enough, lies with high-percentage trainer Nevin. She does not do well with first-time starters (0 for 17 with only three in the money with older debut runners in dirt sprints). Perhaps Liam’s Prince needs a race as well as some more distance. I will take a chance with him Saturday but will also put him on my watch list for further reference.
Race 8 – Allowance – Net Gain (9) – morning line: 8-1, value line: 6 to 1
To be honest, Net Gain has been a disappointment. An Iowa-bred that cost $325,000 last year, the colt has lost five times at odds of 4-1 or less. He should offer better value in this spot. Trainer Bill Mott tries turf for the first time, and although the colt doesn’t have a ton of grass breeding, he ran pretty well over Polytrack in the Wando Stakes on April 19. That race featured no pace, and Net Gain attempted to rally while three wide throughout. Here’s hoping the solid synthetic form translates to turf.
With Gallery (3) and Made in Detroit (5) in Saturday’s race, there should be pace for Net Gain to attack. I don’t think there are any killers in here, and if Net Gain takes a slight step forward, he can be right there at a good mutuel. Multiple-race players also should consider Persuasive (4) and Indebted (2).
Race 9 – Forbidden Apple Stakes – Vyjack (4) – morning line: 4-1, value line: 9-2
Vyjack ran well in his turf debut, the Grade 3 Poker Stakes, despite being completely pace compromised. There appeared to be a good amount of speed on paper in the Poker, but only King Kreesa (8) went hard for the lead, and the New York-bred veteran made them all pay with a gate-to-wire victory. Vyjack, a half-brother to the recent Grade 1 turf winner Tepin, might have found a home on the lawn. He rallied in the four path in the stretch, galloped out well, and should get some help up front this time around. He has the class and kick to make a strong late impression.
Reload (1) is the horse to beat based on his undefeated turf record and the likelihood of an excellent pace-tracking, ground-saving trip. While he did receive an OK trip last time tracking a three-ply pace skirmish, the manner in which he put that field to bed in the stretch indicates he’s a promising runner in this division.
I’ll bet Vyjack to win, use both Vyjack and Reload in multiple-race wagers, and will reluctantly toss Wicked Strong (6), a personal favorite trying turf for the first time. If he handles the surface, he’ll be very tough indeed, but that’s a big if at a moderate to short price. Here’s hoping he runs just well enough to be a sneaky price play on dirt at Saratoga.
Here are some other quick hits:
Race 2 – Tango Time (5)
It’s never easy to get a horse ready to win off a year layoff, but Todd Pletcher has done it twice over the last 3 1/2 weeks at Belmont (Buckskin Doll, Catron). Tango Time showed some ability last year overseas, faces a soft group, and has been working well for his return.
According to the invaluable DRF Clocker Report for May 30, Tango Time “worked a good half-mile going in company with Charming Kitten. Tango Time was much the best here. Came home in 24.47 and galloped out well enough in 1:02.69. RATING: B”
Charming Kitten, winner of the Belmont Gold Cup last year, raced three weeks after that morning trial. He won an optional claimer on turf with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.
Race 4 – Disco Partner (10)
Broke poorly in his turf debut, raced far back on the turn, and seemed a bit green in upper stretch. Then, the light bulb came on, and he ran his final eighth in 11.45 seconds. Given an alert break, he’s a logical contender in this spot.