Illman: How I'd play Belmont on Friday, June 5
Friday’s card provides the perfect appetizer for Saturday’s graded stakes buffet at Belmont.
I'm going to key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my value-line requirement:
Race 1 – Been Here Before (#5 – 6-1 morning line, 5-1 value line)
The two morning-line favorites just don’t do it for me. Lady Serena (#6) rode a slow pace en route to the maiden score last time and might face faster splits in this spot against better horses. Two Taps (#2) must stretch out to a mile while under the gun from the inside.
Instead, I’ll try Been Here Before, a well-bred daughter of Tapit moving from turf to dirt for Kiaran McLaughlin. Two starts back, she chased the Acorn-bound Grade 1 winner By the Moon over a muddy oval at Laurel, was bogged down inside turning for home, and rallied evenly through traffic for the runner-up position. She earned a 73 Beyer Speed Figure on dirt as a juvenile filly and might work out a nice stalking trip in her third start of the form cycle.
Garden Princess (#7), a talented filly who might not have handled the Churchill track last time out, also is expected to perform well here. I’ll utilize her in my multiple-race bets as well.
Race 3 – I’m a Looker (#3 – 15-1 morning line, 8-1 value line)
The pace should be strong in the $150,000 Jersey Girl Stakes at six furlongs, and that could play right into I’m a Looker’s hooves. She’s kept top competition in her career, chasing Taylor S, the undefeated Promise Me Silver, Lovely Maria, and Shook Up in her first four races. Most recently, she overcame a speed-friendly Keeneland surface to defeat the next-out Black-Eyed Susan winner Keen Pauline with a solid 78 Beyer. I’m a Looker shows two bullet workouts leading up to this race and bypassed an allowance event Thursday at Churchill Downs to run here. It’s a sign of confidence from this low-profile, high-percentage barn (24 percent winners, positive ROI over the past year).
Race 6 – Fade to Black (#7 – 10-1 morning line, 8-1 value line)
This looks like a spot to take a swing against My Miss Sophia (#2) as she tries turf for the first time. Fade to Black probably will race in close attendance to that likely pacesetter, and she should benefit from her most recent start, her first in almost six months. In that spot, Fade to Black set an easy opening fraction only to see the pace gradually increase thereafter. She hung in gamely against the stakes winner Granny Mc’s Kitten, falling short by only 1 1/4 lengths at the end. She showed a willingness to rate and finish in her 2014 finale at Aqueduct.
Race 7 – Seeking Alpha (#11 – 7-2 morning line, 3-1 value line)
Chad Brown trains the two morning-line favorites in this maiden special weight on the grass, but I’ll try to defeat Lookaroundcorners (#1), who will likely take more money after finishing ahead of Seeking Alpha in a race April 18 at Keeneland. While Lookaroundcorners saved valuable ground most of the way, Seeking Alpha was forced four wide on the far turn before challenging for the lead in upper stretch. According to Trakus data, Seeking Alpha traveled 52 feet farther than Lookaroundcorners. It’s somewhat concerning Seeking Alpha seemed to hang in the stretch, but this slight cutback in distance should suit.
Race 10 – Dynamic Sky (#1 – 4-1 morning line, 5-1 value line)
I’ve never been a big fan of Dynamic Sky, but he performs well with some cut in the ground, and the Belmont turf courses received the soaking earlier in the week. He didn’t get much pace to attack last time when in against Manhattan hopefuls Twilight Dancer, War Dancer, and Hyper and gets class relief in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup.
Although there isn’t a ton of pace in the Gold Cup, Dynamic Sky should get enough that he isn’t compromised. A similar ground-saving trip to the one he received when winning the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap last November is a distinct possibility with Dynamic Sky breaking from the inside post.
** I won’t get too cute in the other major stakes races. Rock Fall (#8, eighth race) has the looks of a leading sprinter and is the choice in the True North while Stephanie’s Kitten (#1a, ninth race) is top class and tough to down in the New York.
Cat Tree (#4) might provide value at 5-1 or so in the fourth race, the $250,000 Tremont Stakes for 2-year-olds. While Uncle Mo’s brother, Indian Trail (#6), figures to take a ton of money in the fifth event, keep an eye on fellow first-time starter Blame It On Vino (#2). He might loom an exotics threat at a price. If this race doesn’t work out, watch out for him on turf down the road for trainer John Kimmel.
Best of luck!