Illman: How I'd play Aqueduct on Sunday, Nov. 9
I must admit that I'm not that enamored with Sunday's card.
My goal is to get alive to #9 NORTH STAR BOY in today's seventh race. A 5-year-old gelding, North Star Boy recently gave a solid account of himself when in over his head against Wise Dan and company in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap at Saratoga. His rider that afternoon, Irad Ortiz Jr., did nothing wrong as he saved every inch of ground before finding a bit of traffic in upper stretch. Despite only winning once in 2014, North Star Boy has been good for most of the year. He gets a jockey switch to Sheldon Russell, who has combined with trainer Niall Saville for 12 wins from 41 starts (29 percent) and a $3.38 ROI over the past five years.
There should be pace for North Star Boy to attack today, but I am worried that he missed time after the Bernard Baruch with a foot bruise and that he could be utilizing this race as a prep for the Claiming Crown Emerald, a race in which he was second last year. Also, with the scratch of the morning line favorite, #5 WAR CORRESPONDENT, North Star Boy will be bet down.
I'd take North Star Boy at odds around 7 to 2 or 4 to 1 and will use him in multiple-race wagers with #2 SKY BLAZER and in exactas and trifectas with Sky Blazer, #1a TETRADRACHM, and #10 SINATRA.
I was thinking of getting cute with first-time starters in the second and sixth races, a pair of 2-year-old events, but eventually ended up with logical, experienced performers.
Trainer Bill Mott is 1 for 66 (2 percent) with a $1.40 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes, so it was heartening to see #1 SEEKING perform so well first time out at Belmont. Dismissed at 38 to 1, she saved ground at the back of the field before swinging into the five path for the stretch run. She kicked late for third, drew a good inside post for today's effort, and Mott's numbers leap to 11 percent with second-time juveniles going long on grass.
I'll use her equally with #8 TRENSITA, who just missed against the favored Path at Belmont with a similar inside-out trip to what Seeking received. She exceeded the Beyer par for this level in that race, although that field didn't look like much on paper.
If I do decide to go deep in the early pick four, I might utilize #6 ARANA, a Hard Spun filly going out for John Kimmel, as a backup. The pedigree and workouts are appealing, but Kimmel is only 1 for 24 over the past five years with 2-year-olds on turf.
I'm getting tired of #4 SAINT JOSEPH's act, but he was up and on a very fast pace most recently at Belmont before succumbing in the final strides. Perhaps he'll get an easier setup in this afternoon's sixth race for trainer Chad Brown. If it's not Saint Joseph, then it's probably #3 GOT WINGED, who finished ahead of Saint Joseph after tracking that hot pace. He goes out for a good Midwestern horseman in Mike Dini, and I like the rider switch to Jose Lezcano.
I'll probably put him in the winner's circle by saying this, but I'm going to try to beat #2 PERSUASIVE DEVIL, who has failed to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in all five races. He has faced better horses recently, and trainer Joe Orseno does well going turf to dirt, but Persuasive Devil's best race came in the slop at five furlongs.

