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Aqueduct

Illman: How I'd play Aqueduct for Saturday, Nov. 29

Dan Illman|Nov 29, 2014

It’s a classy card at Aqueduct this afternoon, with the featured Cigar Mile the last Grade 1 of the year in New York. I’ll concentrate on the graded stakes races and the late pick four sequence.

The fourth race is the Grade 3 Comely Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at nine furlongs. I’m afraid that I’m not going to be too clever here as DAME DOROTHY (3) and SNOWBELL (1A) look like the main contenders. Of the two, I prefer the former. The undefeated Dame Dorothy is still a bit awkward and green – she doesn’t seem to appreciate being down inside and behind horses – but she acts like she’ll run all day long. Snowbell won her last two races on fast dirt by a combined 12 1/2 lengths, but there is a ton of speed in this pedigree, and it will be interesting to see if she will stay the 1 1/8 miles.

The first leg of the late pick four is the seventh race, an entry-level allowance at 6 1/2 furlongs. PULLING G’S (1), the 6-5 favorite on Eric Donovan’s track morning line, should benefit from the scratch of fellow speedball CELEBRATED TALENT (5). I must use the favorite in the pick four. If he falters, perhaps the pace-pressing WACO (7) will take advantage. Waco has run too well to lose in his last two races. Two back, he was involved in a prolonged speed duel with next-out 94-Beyer winner Mosler. While that one faded to last, Waco battled all the way to the wire, eventually dropping the decision to good-trip stalker Dream Saturday. Most recently, Waco again worked hard up front only to be beaten a head under the line. Waco drew outside the speed and might rate a bit this time around. I’ll start the sequence with (1) and (7).

ANGELA RENEE (7), the beaten chalk in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, looms the favorite again in today’s Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. A full sister to the route-loving To Honor and Serve, Angela Renee shouldn’t have too much of a problem with today’s added distance. She has run some very nice races this year, but she’s also thrown in a few stinkers. Like Pulling G’s in the preceding race, she’s a favorite whom I have to use in the pick four, but she doesn’t have to win. From a single-race perspective, I think that GAP YEAR (4) is the better option at a better price. Like Angela Renee, she is by Bernardini, but Gap Year’s female family is geared to speed. That’s a concern with Gap Year, but she’s already proven around two turns and seems to be learning with each and every start. Although all out to beat the exposed Eskenformoney at Keeneland, Gap Year received quite an education. She took dirt in her face while held up behind horses, split rivals turning for home, and had to rally up the inside to win the head bob. Gap Year has tons of upside and should get a solid pace to attack. I prefer her to Angela Renee but will utilize both in the multiple-race bets. Deeper tickets could include the undefeated QUEZON (3), who adds Lasix for her first start around two turns.

A giant field of 2-year-olds will contest the prestigious Remsen at nine furlongs. I’m looking toward the outside with OSTROLENKA (11) and CLASSY CLASS (10). The former must stretch out around two turns for the first time, but his early speed should play well in this spot. In his most recent race, the $250,000 Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York-breds, Ostrolenka battled two pace rivals from the rail, put both away on the turn, and held off the solid Good Luck Gus in the stretch. If Ostrolenka is allowed to relax on or near a moderate pace, he could be tough in the stretch for Todd Pletcher. Classy Class is getting a major test stretching out off a single sprint race, and his pedigree could be strained at this distance. It’s hard to deny how good he looked in his debut, however, and he shouldn’t be too far off the leaders as the field winds its way up the backstretch. I’ll play both in the pick four and will bet Ostrolenka to win if close to his 4-1 morning line. FROSTED (12) is worth inclusion on deeper tickets. He must deal with a tough outside post but adds Lasix for Kiaran McLaughlin (a potent trainer angle, indeed), and his pedigree might play out better than my preferred two at this distance.

The Breeders’ Cup Sprint has already produced two winners (Salutos Amigos, Big Macher), and three of today’s Cigar Mile contenders exit the fleet heat at Santa Anita. BOURBON COURAGE (9) was simply outsprinted early but came with a flying finish to run fourth in the Sprint. He galloped out beautifully after the race, and today’s one-turn mile should hit him right between the eyes. He’s 10-1 on the morning line and is worth playing at that price. SECRET CIRCLE (6), the 2013 Sprint winner, ran another corker in this year’s edition. He tracked the leaders from the second flight while in between horses and kept on well to finish second. He can be forwardly placed in the Cigar Mile and is proven over a route of ground. Those two are the plays in my 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 Pick four, but the courageous PRIVATE ZONE (1) could certainly be used on wider tickets. Private Zone might be more effective going shorter, but he ran well in this race last year and could attempt to wire them once again.

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