Illman: How I'd play Aqueduct for Saturday, April 25
The Excelsior Stakes is the featured event on a solid Saturday afternoon card at the Big A. I'm going to key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my odds requirements:
Excelsior Stakes (race 8)
Wicked Strong (No. 7), last year’s Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner over this surface, looms the logical favorite, but I wonder why trainer Jimmy Jerkens chose this spot for Wicked Strong’s second race of 2015. After all, there are more prestigious stakes right around the corner. For example, the Grade 2 Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks afternoon at Churchill Downs offers double the Excelsior’s purse at a manageable 1 1/16 miles.
Instead, Wicked Strong must navigate the demanding 1 1/4 miles of the Excelsior. He is the best horse, but his odds will be miniscule, and I have my eye on a longer-priced entrant that might upset the apple cart at a good price.
Cousin Stephen (5) started his career like he was meant to be a pretty good horse. He won second-out going nine furlongs at Aqueduct but never could really build on that effort during the spring and summer of his sophomore campaign. After a failed try on turf at Belmont on Sept. 19, Cousin Stephen improved drastically. His recent dirt Beyers have jumped from 85 to 97 to 99 to 103. Sure, his victories during that period came against much-weaker horses at Parx, but the feeling here is that trainer Chad Brown has figured Cousin Stephen out.
His most recent race, the $98,000 Stymie Stakes over the inner track, was a good effort. Cousin Stephen made the lead, took pressure from Vyjack, sent that multiple graded winner packing back to last place on the final turn, and dug in gamely to finish second behind Turco Bravo (9), whom he faces again Saturday.
The distance is an obvious question mark, but Cousin Stephen can find a good forward position just off Stormin Monarcho (3), and can get the jump on Wicked Strong turning into the stretch. At 8-1 or so, I’ll play Cousin Stephen to win.
Maiden special weight (race 5)
I’m against track morning-line favorite Warrior Kitten (11), a first-time starter for the Ramseys, Michael Maker and Javier Castellano. These are top connections, to be sure, but Warrior Kitten has been in serious training since late December. Why all of the workouts without a race? Surely there was a spot at Gulfstream for this Kitten’s Joy colt. Warrior Kitten shows a bullet half-mile move from the gate over the Belmont training track on April 15. He’s 3-1 on the morning line, and I just can’t take a debut runner at that price.
Instead, I’ll key my action on three other horses. Ack Feisty (5) is a first-time starter trained by Chad Brown. His workouts aren’t anything to write home about, but Brown wins his fair share with these types. I am concerned about the pedigree because Ack Feisty's sire, Birdstone, has terrible numbers with first-time turf performers. Still, Ack Feisty is well connected and the dam has thrown a useful turf performer or two. I’d play Ack Feisty at 5-1 odds or greater, and will also use Adirondack Posse (8) and My Bobby (2) in multiple-race wagers.
Adirondack Posse was forced to come five wide turning for home against open maidens at Gulfstream Park on March 21, and still rallied to finish in a dead heat for second. If he moves forward off that race, he should be right there on Saturday. It could be argued that he is the most likely winner.
My Bobby is more of a reach after a pair of dull efforts on dirt. While the sire is 0 for 30 with first-time turf runners, the third dam is millionaire Sabin. There is some grass closer up in the pedigree and My Bobby might be able to save some valuable ground leaving the chute. He’s worthy of inclusion in the multiples.
Optional claimer (race 7)
Some might believe this is a questionable class drop for Powerful Instinct (12), but I think this is the perfect level for the 6-year-old. He’s already gone through his New York-bred conditions and probably isn’t good enough for an open N1X allowance. What’s left? This $40,000 optional for statebreds.
Powerful Instinct’s usual Beyer in the low to mid-80s would probably get it done in this spot, although he must break from a tough outside post position. In his most recent start, which came against allowance foes at Gulfstream, Powerful Instinct bided his time near the back of the pack while saving ground and finished with some interest once steered into the clear in the lane. That race has produced three next-out winners, including Market Outlook, who triumphed with an 88 Beyer in an N1X on turf at Aqueduct last Saturday.
I’d play Powerful Instinct to Win at 5-2 and will use him in the multiple-race wagers along with Majestic Raffy (8), a 7-year-old making his seasonal debut for shrewd connections. Majestic Raffy is 2 for 6 over the Aqueduct turf and 2 for 32 elsewhere. Majestic Raffy has run races fast enough to win at this level. He’s 10-1 on the morning line and fair odds at that price.