Illman: Gulfstream pick four for Saturday, Jan. 3

Gulfstream Park hosts a nice card Saturday. I’ll take a look at the 50-cent late pick four comprised of three stakes races and a difficult conditioned claimer.

My “caveman” video analysis of the bet is available at the following link:
http://www.drf.com/events/dania-beach-stakes-gulfstream-park-0

RACE 8

READY FOR RYE (10) figures to take the lion’s share of the wagering off a 96 Beyer Speed Figure maiden win over three next-out graduates. In that race, he backed up his good Saratoga debut, a runner-up effort behind the classy Carpe Diem. He is the horse to beat, to be sure, but it’s not like he’s a mortal lock. His big-fig win came over a sealed, sloppy track after grabbing an uncontested lead. With the fleet IT’S NOT ME (11) drawn directly to his outside, Ready for Rye is not getting an easy early advantage in the Spectacular Bid. We’ll find out more about this gelding today.

In the video, I used It’s Not Me and BARBADOS (9) as Ticketmaker ‘B’ plays, but upon further review, I’ll move It’s Not Me down to a ‘C’ as he’ll have to overcome pace pressure against tougher horses. I’ll also upgrade Barbados. Although he’s still very green, he showed some ability in his maiden win at Keeneland and would benefit from the expected hot pace. He has upside.

TOASTING MASTER (2) drew a tough inside post position, but this colt showed speed and heart last time out at Churchill Downs. He dueled an odds-on favorite into the ground and then gamely held off the closers. He’ll probably have to sit, but I think there’s some ability here, and he could be a nice price in the multiple-race exotics.

CAVEMAN:
2,9,10,11

TICKETMAKER:
A – 2,9,10
C – 11

RACE 9

The goal here is to try to beat the two morning-line favorites, RIGHT ON KITTEN (8) and SUNDAY SONNET (5). NICKY’S BROWN MISS (2) was overmatched against Lady Eli in both the Miss Grillo and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but her other grass races are all solid. She chased two promising New York invaders at Gulfstream West last time out and could work out a good inside-out trip from the second flight under Gabriel Saez.

CARDINAL COVE (7) is undefeated from two starts and looked strong while digging down deep to repel a late challenge last time out at Tampa Bay Downs. She’s a half-sister to the good turf runner Dark Cove and has shown some professionalism despite her inexperience.

DEVINE AIDA (9) was hung wide around both bends in her turf debut but showed enough moxie to win her first start around two turns.

Deeper tickets could include Sunday Sonnet, a filly who might be better on grass.

CAVEMAN:
2,7,9

TICKETMAKER:
A – 2,7,9

RACE 10

JUAN AND BINA (7) and MAWTHOOQ (9) look like the strongest contenders in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. The former tried to go with the very talented Mr. Jordan last time out and was simply not good enough. He’ll likely revert to the stalking tactics that led to his debut win. It must be noted, however, that there was a big traffic jam at the start of the Buffalo Man Stakes, and that Mr. Jordan and Juan and Bina were two of the lucky few who escaped unscathed.

Mawthooq adds Lasix for Kiaran McLaughlin after an odds-on romp in the slop. He was very green in the early portion of that race but showed talent once he relaxed into stride. He should be forwardly placed here.

CAVEMAN:
7,9

TICKETMAKER:
A – 7,9

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RACE 11

I’d like to try to get a price home in the finale. CLASSY KID (2) hasn’t shown much on grass, but I prefer a stranger to the horses who have failed repeatedly over the surface. Although the beaten favorite last time out at Woodbine, he rallied gamely and galloped out well. He’s in sneaky-good form, fits nicely at this class level, and has turf breeding (his dam won a Grade 3 over this course). He’s interesting at his 10-1 morning-line price.

LUNAR TALES (6) has dirty form, and that could help his price. He was terrible in his last two races, but those starts were on dirt, and he is much, much better on grass. Three back, in a conditioned claimer on turf at Belmont, he broke three lengths slow, circled the field on the turn, and was only beaten a head. Don’t believe the main-track form. He’s a nice fit for trainer Gary Contessa.

My backups are DOBRA HISTORIA (1), a short-priced horse whom I don’t really like, and SCORCHED CAT (5). DOBRA HISTORIA can be his own worst enemy as he is often rank in the early portion of his races. Still, he is taking a giant drop in class after an even finish in a key allowance heat at Churchill. Perhaps he finally found a field he can down.

Scorched Cat ran well in his first start of the meet. A repeat of that effort puts him in the mix at a decent price.

CAVEMAN:
1, 2,5,6,

TICKETMAKER:
A – 2,6
B – 1,5