Illman: Gulfstream pick four play for Saturday, Feb. 21

Let’s take a look at the 50-cent late pick four at Gulfstream on a huge afternoon of racing.

The concern is that this bet might end up very chalky. You have champion Main Sequence returning to the races in the Mac Diarmida, two strong favorites in Upstart and Frosted in the Fountain of Youth, and a fairly heavy favorite in Dreaming of Gold in the finale. Let’s see if we can cook up some value somewhere.

I’ll post both caveman and Ticketmaker plays.

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Race 9

Main Sequence’s merits are obvious. Despite the lack of pace in the Mac Diarmida, and the fact that he’s using this as a prep for Dubai, he’s the best horse and should win. He’s the lone Ticketmaker ‘A’ play.

Twilight Eclipse is the only backup. He loves firm turf, loves Gulfstream firm turf, and loves Gulfstream firm turf at this distance. He also has more speed than Main Sequence, and I would expect trainer Tom Albertrani to have him fully cranked for this one.

Caveman: 1,6
Ticktemaker: A – 1; C – 6

Race 10

I’m looking for a price in the Canadian Turf. Aripeka is a lightly raced gelding with some upside potential. He was a solid winner of an N2X over this course in December and is remarkably consistent (on the board in his last seven races). There appears to be a good amount of speed in the rac,e and Julien Leparoux will likely bide his time with Aripeka. He doesn’t need to be a superstar to win this race, and is 15-1 on the morning line.

Excaper might have to work for the lead here, but the hard-hitting veteran gave a good performance when second to Mshawish in the $100,000 El Prado Stakes on Dec. 13. If he doesn’t get the front, he can sit a pace-tracking, ground-saving trip under Jose Lezcano.

Grand Tito has run his eyeballs out this meet and should appreciate cutting back in distance. A good pace up front would also work in his favor. Last time out, he couldn’t get covered up when chasing Excaper. This time, he’ll let others do the dirty work.

Jack Milton just might be the best horse in this race, but he tailed off in the Woodbine Mile before being shelved. He’s a backup along with Sky Blazer, a veteran who always seems to do well over this course.

Caveman: 1,2,7,6,9
Ticketmaker: A – 1,2,7; B – 6,9

Race 11

Upstart and Frosted ran away from their competition in the Holy Bull on Jan. 24. While this is a tougher spot, they seem like the best horses in the race. Upstart was very, very good in the Holy Bull, and he gets a slight nod once again despite giving away six pounds to his main rival.

Frosted should be tighter with the Holy Bull under his belt, and could show greater early interest with the addition of blinkers. He might have more long-term potential than Upstart.

Caveman: 6,7
Ticketmaker: A – 6; B – 7

Race 12

Dreaming of Gold will deservedly take a ton of play based on his horrible-trip debut . He was impeded terribly by a loose horse leaving the gate, was far back early, and ended up five wide on the final turn. He was very game in the stretch, galloped out well, and could be a stakes horse. It will be interesting to see if jockey Javier Castellano is aggressive early given the lack of pace in the race.

Danish Dynaformer is my sleeper at a big price. Trained by the wily Roger Attfield, Danish Dynaformer is out of a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Mile winner War Chant, and never saw the inside in his local debut. The rails were way out at 108 feet for that race, and Danish Dynaformer was three to five wide throughout before understandably faltering in the stretch. I’m expecting a better effort in his second start of the year.

Animal Kracker finished ahead of Danish Dynaformer despite also racing well off the rail. I’ll use him as a Ticketmaker backup along with Cat Humor, a Graham Motion-trained performer who improved drastically after adding blinkers and Lasix in his first start as a gelding.

Caveman: 5,6,7,8
Ticketmaker: A – 7,8; B – 5,6

For a $1 base, it’s an $80 caveman play.

Using Ticketmaker, I’m investing only $70 and getting a $3 base ticket for my A plays, and a $2 base ticket for my A’s with one B tickets. I get the $1 base with myA’s with two B’s and A’s with one C.