Illman: Belmont pick three play for Sunday, Oct. 5
After being deluged with rain Saturday morning, the weather has calmed, and today's racing at Belmont will be conducted under clear skies on a crisp fall afternoon.
Let's try a pick three.
Race 8
I was very, very impressed by #4 SAVVY STAR's debut run over muddy going Aug. 22 at Saratoga.
First, trainer Bill Mott doesn't win very often with first-time starters. Second, Savvy Star broke slowly and was hampered badly in the opening sixteenth of a mile.
She certainly was behind the eight ball yet came with a wide run to challenge for the lead in upper stretch. Savvy Star was confronted with a strong challenge from the rail-skimming Running Wild, bumped with that foe in late stretch, and battled hard to dead-heat for the win.
It was a big performance for the well-bred half-sister to the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Bluegrass Cat, and Mott usually moves them up second time out.
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She'll be my lone 'A' selection on my DRF Ticketmaker play. My backup is #9 PRINCESS VIOLET, a New York-bred with a huge speed-figure advantage and who is taking a dramatic drop in class.
She was scheduled to compete in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga but came up with a physical issue and was forced to bypass that race. Most recently, Princess Violet couldn't go with Stonetastic, who freaked over a speed-favoring track in the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes.
Race 9
I'll give #9 JITNEY one more chance in the second leg of the bet. The mare has some good back numbers and now races for a tag for the first time in her second start of the form cycle. There is plenty of pace for her to attack, and she should be charging in the stretch.
She's my lone 'A,' and I'll back up with #6 SUMMERDALE, an in-form 3-year-old with some upside potential, and #10 ONE TIME ONLY, a disappointing filly who adds blinkers for the first time.
Race 10
#3 PARIS BIKINI ran a professional race first out for Todd Pletcher, and the way she relaxed on the lead makes me think she'll rate kindly off a couple of other speed horses in the Grade 2 Matron Stakes. She's very dangerous with a forward move.
Although #2 PAULASSILVERLINING may have been lucky to win her maiden in the mud Aug. 22 at Saratoga (the late leader, Skipalute, stopped badly in the final sixteenth of a mile), she showed some grit to dig down and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat late. She handles wet going and could get some pace attack in the lane. I'll use her as my backup in the pick three.
Race-by-race A-B-C breakdown:
Race 8
A = 4
B = 9
Race 9
A = 9
B = 6, 10
Race 10
A = 3
C = 2
Here are my Ticketmaker tickets ($12 total investment):
All A Entries ($3 base):
4 with 9 with 3 = $3
A's with One B ($2 base):
9 with 9 with 3 = $2
4 with 6, 10 with 3 = $4
A's with Two B's = ($1 base):
9 with 6, 10 with 3 = $2
A's with One C ($1 base):
4 with 9 with 2 = $1