Illman: Belmont pick four for Saturday, Oct. 25

Let’s try an early pick four.

Race 2

#5 CONSUMER CREDIT had a nightmare trip in her only prior outing on turf. That was a sprint over this course and distance in her debut, and she had traffic trouble from the five-sixteenths pole all the way to the finish. She never had a true chance to run. Her subsequent start was washed off the grass, and she was hardly disgraced, finishing second to a runaway winner in a race that ended up faster than the Grade 1 Frizette for 2-year-old fillies later that day over the sloppy track. With Chad Brown at the helm, this daughter of South African Group 2 turf winner Sally Bowles could be a good one. She’s my main play in the first leg of the sequence.

#9 GREYWALLS finished ahead of Consumer Credit in that troubled turf race, and she was blocked for a spell in that heat before angling to the rail for a clear shot in midstretch. You can draw a line through her most recent start, the Grade 3 Miss Grillo, as she was simply overmatched. By City Zip, it’s possible this drop in distance will agree with her as well.

Deep-pocketed players might want to use #2 MORE THAN RAINBOWS, a first-time starter sure to go off at huge odds. She has some pedigree appeal, however, as a daughter of More Than Ready out of a dam who won sprinting on turf. Her third dam is the great dirt sprinter Safely Kept.

Race 3

The key to this sequence might be to try to beat #2 ROMANSH, a multiple graded stakes winner dropping in class and distance in the Bold Ruler. Perhaps he’s found his right level, but he should take a good amount of money, and his last few races were subpar. Perhaps he’s ripe for the picking at this shorter trip, as he hasn’t sprinted since his career debut way back on March 30, 2013 (he finished fourth).

#4 SALUTOS AMIGOS is fast enough to win this race, and he might have been compromised just a bit in the Grade 1 Vosburgh on Sept. 27. There was supposed to be a ton of speed that would help Salutos Amigos’s late run, but the complexion of the race changed when Zee Bros missed the break. That left Private Zone with an easier time of it up front, and Salutos Amigos couldn’t make much of a dent in the stretch. Perhaps he’ll get a better pace scenario this afternoon.

#6 RIVER ROCKS looms the one to beat after a cracker-jack effort in the Grade 2 Kelso. He was embroiled in a three-ply pace battle, put away his two early rivals, and succumbed only to the perfect-trip winner. Perhaps he’ll sit just off the leaders here, and there’s no denying he’s plenty fast enough on the Beyer scale to get it done.

Players looking for extra coverage could use #7 CEASE, who returned to form in his first start for Jason Servis. Grade 1-placed in 2012, this veteran exits a very fast race but is stepping way up in class.

Race 4

The third leg of the bet is off the turf and filled with scratches. I’ll use the two horses with the best dirt form and hope that runners like #6 DOMER and #9 LUV DAKOTA SKYE don’t jump up and bite me on the class drop.

#5 A MARKED MAN has burned money in recent starts, but his sole dirt effort wasn’t bad during the spring meeting. He has the speed to gain a forward position, and I think he’ll appreciate turning back to this shorter distance.

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#16 DEMO drew in from the also-eligible list. He improved by leaps and bounds in his first start for these connections, but it’s quite possible he really appreciated the weak competition up at Finger Lakes. Still, he couldn’t have asked for an easier spot for his NYRA debut.

Race 5

I don’t necessarily trust the likely favorite, #13 WIND OF BOSPHORUS, a gelding who is 1 for 19. You can’t argue his Beyer edge, though, and he’s taking a giant plunge in class.

I prefer #7 CHASIN CHAMA, a lightly raced 3-year-old who looked good in beating statebred maiden claimers here last month. Chasin Chama’s form is dirtied up somewhat by his last race on the main track. With some improvement, he can get into the number at a solid price.

#10 FROGMAN MEL goes second off the bench and has some figures that indicate he can contend on his very best day.

Here’s what the caveman ticket would look like:

Race 2
2,9,5 with 4,6,7 with 5,16 with 7,10,13 = $27 for 50 cents.

From a Ticketmaker standpoint, I’d break it down like this:

Race 2
5 – A
9 – B
2- C

Race 3
4 – A
6 – A
7 – C

Race 4
5 – A
16 – A

Race 5
7 – A
13 – A
10 - B