Illman: Belmont pick four play for Sunday, Oct. 19
Let's try the late pick four.
Race 7: The first leg of the wager is a maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies at six furlongs. When falling for debut runners, the handicapper must be swayed by three factors. They are pedigree, trainer intent, and workouts. #9 OVERPREPARED ticks all of the above boxes.
A $125,000 yearling that resold for $310,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds, Overprepared is a half-sister to the juvenile debut winner Shadow Cast, a filly who would go on to win the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes. Two other siblings won first out. Overprepared has a classy and precocious pedigree.
Trainer Todd Pletcher needs no introduction, but to reinforce his ability to win with young talent, here is a Formulator stat to consider. Over the past two years, Pletcher is 11 for 21 (52 percent) with a $3.96 ROI with juvenile debut runners in maiden special-weight dirt sprints at Belmont.
As for the morning trials, here's what the Welsch/Vesce Clocker Report for Oct. 13 had to say about Overprepared's five-furlong gate drill at Belmont:
"Oct. 13 - Showed good gate speed with Genre in 24.20, was not asked for much effort remaining a length in front of her workmate in 47.40, 1:00.20, and out very well in 1:13.20 for six furlongs. This filly looked absolutely fantastic galloping out through the stretch after the work. Rating: B+"
Needless to say, I'm using Overprepared in the pick four. I also will use the coupled entry of #1 ETIQUETTE and #1A TREASURE.
Race 8: This optional claimer on turf is a perplexing handicapping challenge. I'll spread and pray. I don't particularly trust #7 MIDDLEBURG, but he did have some trouble last time out and can be close to the expected moderate pace. #10 HELM and #4 WHICH MARKET exit the faster division of $62,500, N2X optional claimers Sept. 19. Which Market is sharp but faces a tougher pace dynamic here. I'm hoping Helm can stay a bit closer to the early leaders. Some may say that #1A COMPLIANCE OFFICER is a bit over the hill, but I have to respect his back class. I'll use those four and hope that it's enough to propel me to the final two legs.
:: Build your pick four ticket with DRF TicketMaker
Race 9: #1 SLUMBER has the best form, but there is some worry concerning the long layoff coming into this race. I have to use him but also respect #7 SKY BLAZER, who chased Wise Dan at Saratoga and was stymied by a glacial pace two starts back at Belmont.
Race 10: #5 LADY KREESA hung in pretty well last time out in a race that collapsed from a pace perspective. Perhaps she'll have an easier time of it in the finale. #4 AS WELL doesn't win very often, but she was simply too far back to take full advantage. #11 RESOLUTELY might have the brightest future of these.
From a caveman perspective, the ticket would look like this: 1, 9 with 1, 4, 7, 10 with 1, 7 with 4, 5, 11
For a 50-cent investment, that ticket costs $24.
For those looking to play with Ticketmaker, here are my letter breakdowns:
Race 7
A – 9
B – 1
Race 8
A – 1, 4, 7, 10
Race 9
A – 1, 7
Race 10
A – 4, 5
B – 11