Illman: Belmont pick four play for Saturday, May 9
Belmont’s Saturday card features four graded stakes races, including the Peter Pan for 3-year-olds and the Ruffian for fillies and mares. With the two main turf races carded as part of the late pick four, I’ll bet that wager with a base bet of 50 cents and a budget of $100.
Race 7 – Beaugay Stakes
While I respect the likely favorite Discreet Marq (7), she disappointed at times last year and now is returning off a pretty long layoff against some good horses. Perhaps Christophe Clement has her back to her best, and she might end up the main speed, but I’ll only use her as a backup on my Ticketmaker play.
J Wonder (1) is my top selection in the Beaugay. A multiple Group 3 winner overseas, J Wonder was compromised by a slow start, a crawling pace and a wide trip in her North American debut. She draws comfortably inside for the Beaugay and the feeling is that Shug McGaughey will have her tighter in her second start of the year.
I’ll also use Radiator (2), a beautifully bred filly who was visually impressive winning an entry-level allowance race April 8 at Keeneland. While it’s true she had a perfect pocket trip in that race, she showcased eye-catching acceleration to win in hand.
Photo Call (4) had significant traffic trouble in the La Prevoyante two back and might not have wanted to be on the lead in the recent Orchid Stakes at Gulfstream. The cutback in distance should work in her favor.
Caveman: 1, 2, 4, 7
Ticketemaker
A: 1, 2, 4
B: 7
C: None
Race 8 – Allowance
Rectify (3) is the solid play for trainer Bill Mott. The colt looked sharp winning his maiden at Aqueduct last month and was flattered when the fourth-place finisher jumped up to graduate with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure. The sixth-place finisher also returned to win, albeit on grass in a maiden claimer with a 70 Beyer. Rectify has good positional speed and can be placed off Global Positioning (1) and Wincoma (2) on the turn.
As backups, I’ll use Global Positioning, who failed to parlay a perfect trip tracking a pace skirmish into a chalky win April 10. To be fair, that distance might have been pushing it. He’s stuck down inside but should appreciate turning back in trip.
Dean Verdile (5) shot up the rail to win his debut in game fashion. While that 81 Beyer must be respected, he received a wonderful trip and could face a stronger pace this time around.
Caveman: 1, 3, 5
Ticketmaker
A: 3
B: 5
C: 1
Race 9 – Man o’ War Stakes
I’m not going to try to get too cute in this race. Imagining (1) and Twilight Eclipse (4) both ran well in the Pan American at Gulfstream on March 28 and are two of the better horses in the division. They have the recency edge over the Arlington Million winner Hardest Core, who was compromised by an overly aggressive ride in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Caveman: 1, 4, 6
Ticketmaker
A: 1, 4
B: 6
C: None
:: Build your pick four ticket with DRF TicketMaker
Race 10 – Maiden special weight
This looks like a spread race.
Infinite Midnight (5) is a Giant’s Causeway half-brother to Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude and turf stakes winner Midnight Crooner. Trainer Chad Brown is certainly capable of winning first out going long on the grass, and Infinite Midnight should have plenty of stamina as he’s been working steadily since mid-February.
Lone Trader (3) and Rock Eagle (12) both have the experience edge over Infinite Midnight. Both have turf races that indicate they can win a heat such as this. Shinobi (6) is another Brown firster. Javier Castellano takes the mount.
Tiz Afleet (2) switches to turf for Bill Mott and might work out a trip from the rail while Veya (8) adds blinkers for his second start as a gelding.
Caveman: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 12
Ticketmaker
A: 3, 5, 12
B: 2, 6
C: 8
The caveman play costs $108 with all plays at 50-cent increments.
The Ticketmaker play costs $121. All A plays are at $1 increments, as well as the “all A with one B” and "all A's with two B's" option.
