Illman: Aqueduct pick three for Sunday, Nov. 30

Considering yesterday’s intense rail bias along with today’s soft turf course, two grass races moved to the main track, and a 2-year-old maiden special weight full of first-time starters smack-dab in the middle of the early pick four and pick five, I’m playing the Sunday Aqueduct card with extreme caution.

Let’s try a pick three.

Race 2

We’re off the turf for this race, and I’ll concentrate on some of the main-track-only entrants. I’ll lean on PICCOLO FLATS (13), a filly who has run well in both dirt starts for this barn; TRAIPSE IN UTOPIA (14), who won her maiden in an off-the-turf race earlier in the month; and LITERATA (16), a New York-bred who has already won twice at this meet.

Race 3

David Jacobson claimed SOCIALSAUL (2) for this $16,000 tag Sept. 1, and the back-classer responded by reeling off four consecutive victories. He should be a heavy favorite to run that streak to five in today’s third race. Socialsaul isn’t the same horse who won the New York Derby and finished second in the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap as a 3-year-old, but a repeat of his last race should suffice. There is enough speed for him to track successfully. I’ll roll with him as a single in the sequence.

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Race 4

What makes the early multiple-race wagers so challenging is that horseplayers are betting “blind” into this baby event without the benefit of scanning the tote. The hype horse might be Shug McGaughey’s SWEET CORINE (7), a full sister to Grade 2 route winner El Padrino and a half to multiple Grade 1 route winner Verrazano. Although Sweet Corine is certainly well bred, Shug’s numbers with juvenile first-time starters in maiden special weight dirt sprints aren't very encouraging (3 for 45, 7 percent, $0.43 return on investment over the past five years; 1 for 39 over the NYRA circuit). Considering that record, it’s quite possible that Sweet Corine may need a start and/or more distance. She’s likely to get bet, and I will try to beat her.

I’ll spread and hope for the best in this anchor leg of the pick three. My preferred choice is MILAYA (2), an Eskendreya filly out of a dam who was Grade 3-placed sprinting on synthetic (also twice stakes-placed on dirt, and she earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure on dirt). If you bet all of Michael Dilger’s 150 starters over the past two years, you’ve been rewarded to the tune of a $3 ROI, and Dilger already has two debut winners at this meet.

BLUEGRASS MATTIE (3) is out of a half-sister to the long-winded Tiger’s Rock from the family of leading sire Storm Bird. A $40,000 reserve-not-attained as a yearling, Bluegrass Mattie might want a bit more ground, but her workouts look okay, and you have to respect anything that trainer Chad Brown puts on the track.

DICKINSON (1) is out of Grade 1 synthetic route winner Little Belle, a filly who also placed in three Grade 1 routes on dirt. The Darley homebred has a fantastic pedigree.

Here’s what the caveman play would look like:

13,14,16 with 2 with 1,2,3 = $9 for $1 investment

If you’re playing with Ticketmaker, here’s my breakdown:

Race 2
A – 13,14
B – 16

Race 3
A – 2

Race 4
A – 1,2
B - 3