Illman: Aqueduct pick three play for Saturday, Nov. 22

Let’s try a pick three for Saturday at Aqueduct.

The fifth race is the filly and mare division of the New York Stallion Series, and I will try and beat the morning line favorite, SUNNY DESERT (6). A multiple stakes winner, Sunny Desert loves Aqueduct and certainly has the back class to win this race. But she hasn’t reached the winner’s circle since being transferred to trainer Bruce Levine from the now-retired John Parisella, and I wonder if she’s getting a bit long in the tooth as she closes in on her sixth birthday.

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Instead, I’ll try VICKI’S DANCER (7) and SAYTHREEHAILMARY’S (8). The former adds blinkers for trainer Rudy Rodriguez after a third-place effort over muddy going at Finger Lakes, and Rodriguez is 8 for 22 (36%) over the past year when adding blinkers in dirt sprint races. (Over the past five years, Rodriguez boasts a $2.43 return on investment with that move.) Vicki’s Dancer may have hung a bit when drifting out last time, and the blinkers could help her keep a straighter course in the stretch.

Saythreehailmary’s enjoyed a picture-perfect trip in her recent win over the slop at Aqueduct, as she shot up an inviting opening along the rail and never had a straw in her path. Still, the 3-year-old is lightly raced and capable of further improvement. She’ll have to do it on fast ground, but she figures a solid mutuel, and can sit a good trip stalking the pace from the outside.

Deeper tickets might feature STORIED LADY (10), a late-kicker who is cutting back in distance and adding blinkers for John Hertler.

The sixth race features the long-awaited return of the talented 3-year-old HONOR CODE (8), who won the Grade 2 Remsen here last November. I struggled with how to approach Honor Code in the multiple-race bets. He figures to be overbet considering that this is his first race since an injury put him on the shelf back in March, and the connections are very likely using today as a mere stepping-stone to bigger and better things. Also, the distance is probably shorter than what he really prefers, and it will be his first race against older horses. I would never touch him to win at the expected price, but he figures to get an excellent pace setup, and is the most talented horse in the field. I’d bang my head against the wall if I let the most logical horse in the race knock me out of the sequence, so I wimped out and used him, although I can certainly understand alternative thoughts (single or toss, for example).

Honor Code isn’t the only talented horse returning from an extended layoff, however. MALEEH (2) has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but he is a stakes winner, and he runs well fresh as evidenced by his good second-place finish, defeating four next-out winners, way back on March 23 (his first start in almost a year). Over the past 12 months, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 10 for 28 (37%) with a $3.79 ROI with horses returning from layoffs of six months or greater. Be advised, though, that all 10 of those winners had at least one five-furlong workout leading up to the return. Maleeh shows only half-mile drills. I expect Maleeh to track a contentious pace, and he should get the jump on the favorite turning for home.

Wider plays could include the sharp MONSTER MASH (5) and the speedy PURE SENSATION (7).

The seventh race will be contested over yielding turf. AMERICA’S GUEST (2) ran very well over this course and distance in his turf debut 22 days ago. He has raced only four times. He’ll shed blinkers for a barn that is 4 for 12 (33%) with a $6.61 ROI with that move in turf routes over the past five years. He’s 20-1 on the morning line, and offers nice value at anything close to that price.

ADIRONDACK DANCER (4) has been nibbling lately, and he owns a win over this turf course and handles give in the ground just fine. He was shuffled back a bit entering the turn of his most recent start, but still finished nicely behind the red-hot Ocala Jim. He’s a logical contender from off the pace.

Deeper plays would include the swift ASSET INFLATION (8) and Aqueduct-loving IDLE AMERICAN (9).

Here’s my caveman play:

7,8 with 2,8 with 3,4 = $8 for $1 investment.

For Ticketmaker fans, here are my ‘A’ and ‘B’ breakdowns.

Race 5:

A – 7,8

Race 6

A – 3
B – 8

Race 7:

A – 2,4