Hurricane Lane, the 'other' Godolphin horse, might be the danger in Arc de Triomphe
In the midst of a spectacular 2021 season, Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby can win his first Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday at Longchamp Racecourse.
It might not come with the horse you’d expect.
Appleby and Godolphin send out Adayar, winner of the Derby at Epsom in June and the King George over older rivals in July, and Adayar, ridden by top stable jockey William Buick, might have been the early Arc favorite this week had he drawn a better post. Adayar breaks from post 11, not impossible, but you had better account for the Godolphin and Appleby runner down in post 2.
Hurricane Lane has won six of seven starts, his lone loss a third-place finish in the Derby, won in a romp by Adayar, considered the lesser colt coming into that race and the beneficiary of a perfect trip. Adayar no doubt is very good, but an unspecified if minor setback cost him an intended prep race in the Prix Niel, and under likely conditions Sunday, Hurricane Lane might be better in the $5.8 million Arc.
Heavy rain is possible if not likely Saturday night into Sunday afternoon and the Longchamp course already was rated soft Friday. The Group 1, 1 1/2-mile race could become a test of stamina; Hurricane Lane possesses plenty.
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Hurricane Lane came to Longchamp in June and won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris by six lengths racing 1 1/2 miles over a very soft course. On Sept. 11 he comfortably stayed 1 13/16 miles defeating Arc entrant Mojo Star by nearly three lengths in the St. Leger at Doncaster.
“We know the soft ground is going to suit Hurricane Lane,” said Appleby, who has won six North American graded stakes this year. “But as a bonus, we know if it becomes a stamina-sapping Arc, he has already proven he has stamina in abundance.”
This is far from a two-horse affair. Thirteen others were entered in the 100th Arc, a 1 1/2-mile contest run around right-handed turns. Shippers come from England, Ireland, and Germany along with two Japanese horses, Chrono Genesis and Deep Bond.
Deep Bond wired the Prix Foy, his Arc prep and first start outside Japan, but Chrono Genesis is the stronger contender. The 5-year-old mare, capable at distances between one mile and 1 1/2 miles, is a multiple Group 1 winner who finished a close second to elite 4-year-old Mishriff in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Dubai six months ago. She’s unproven on soft ground and is drawn poorly in 14.
Longshots comprise the four-horse French contingent, with 4-year-old filly Raabihah the shortest price, 16-1, with British bookmakers. Sealiway, Baby Rider, and Bubble Gift are in deep.
On Sept. 1, 2020, Love would have come to the Arc from Ireland as the favorite, and on Sept. 1, 2021, Snowfall would have filled the same role. Both fillies start Sunday for Aidan O’Brien, but the leading Irish contender – and narrow early favorite – is Tarnawa, who won the Prix de l’Opera on the 2020 Arc undercard before landing the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Tarnawa, who could give trainer Dermot Weld his first Arc victory, has raced only twice this year, connections focused on a fall campaign. Five-year-old Tarnawa jogged to a minor stakes score in her comeback race before finishing second, beaten three-quarters of a length, in the Irish Champion. That performance was especially impressive considering the race’s 1 1/4 miles falls short of Tarnawa’s ideal trip and she was compromised when victorious St Mark’s Basilica badly drifted out, pushing Tarnawa along with him and ending her five-race winning streak. Tarnawa, Christophe Soumillon to ride, handles a variety of course conditions but might not relish very soft ground as much as a horse like Hurricane Lane.
Perhaps Snowfall has been too quickly cast aside following a surprising defeat by Teona in the Prix Vermeille, her Arc prep. Snowfall won the Oaks at Epsom by a mind-bending 16 lengths before notching an 8 1/2-length score in the Irish Oaks on July 17. A month later she beat older rivals in the Yorkshire Oaks, where she was slightly less impressive, and had no apparent excuse when falling 1 1/2 lengths short of Teona in the Sept. 12 Vermeille. The race’s only 3-year-old filly, Snowfall gets four pounds Sunday from the 3-year-old colts, seven from older mares, 10 from older males.
Love, Snowfall’s O’Brien-trained stablemate, had similarly sharp form as a 3-year-old of 2020 but has failed to hit the same level this year.
Alenquer, a William Haggas-trained colt who beat Adayar earlier this year, looked poised for an upset bid over firmer footing.
The other two entrants are Broome, another O’Brien charge, and the German horse Torquator Tasso, who could run into the trifecta at long odds.
Post time for the big race, one of six Group 1s on the card, is 10:05 a.m. Eastern. Catch all the action at DRFBets.com.