How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, Jan. 1

The New Year's Day card features Arrogate as he starts a heavy favorite in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes. That race doesn't seem like an appetizing betting proposition, and the uncertain weather and resulting track conditions could affect the scheduled turf races.

Thus, I'll plan on playing very lightly and focus on two horses that should run well, rain or shine.

Race 5 - Claiming
Got Even (3): 5-1 morning line, 6-1 value line

Got Even isn't exactly a prolific winner as he has more second- and third-place finishes than wins, but he looked good wiring a field of entry-level optional claimers two starts back. That race has come back pretty strong as the fourth-place finisher returned to win, albeit on turf, with a solid 93 Beyer Speed Figure.

Got Even's most recent race, a claiming event on turf at Del Mar, is a complete toss as he can't stand up on the lawn. He gets back to his favorite surface, the Santa Anita main track. If that surface retains some of the moisture from Saturday's rain, Got Even won't mind it at all. His jockey, Martin Pedroza, is very aggressive from the gate, and he seems to fit this front-runner very well.

Got Even isn't the most reliable horse in the world and he could come unglued if faced with severe pace pressure. I'll need 6-1 odds, at the very least, to play him to win. If he goes off at a shorter price, I might use him in exotics with MADIBA (2), a late-kicker that returns to his effective class level after being overmatched in a salty optional claiming event.

Race 4 - Claiming
Basinca (8): 4-1 morning line, 4-1 value line

Basinca overcame a speed-friendly surface to score a popular victory against starter allowance rivals three back, then was in way too tough against subsequent Grade 1-placed performer Ten Blessings on November 4. In his most recent effort, he was outsprinted over another speed-favoring surface before passing some tired rivals in the stretch.

I believe Basinca will be effective at this slightly longer distance and he can be closer to the pace this time around. Last One Standing (7) is the horse to catch and beat, but Basinca has races that are just as fast as the morning line favorite and he reunites with Rafael Bejarano (the rider aboard for the win three back).

Basinca offers some value at his 4-1 morning line and I'll play him to win at those odds.

Good luck and Happy New Year!