Hovdey: Hard measuring up to horsepower of ’57 model

At a certain point this spring, a particular chorus arose from the growing pile of pre-Kentucky Derby speculation:

“This is the best crop of Derby horses the game has seen in a very long time.”

That’s quite a load to dump on the shoulders of the headline names primed for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Nevertheless, such things can be fun to say out loud with people listening. It’s the kind of sentiment usually expressed most effectively with a deep conviction unburdened by the messy necessities of provable facts.

A quick unpacking of the statement raises a few questions:

Is the assertion meant to be a snapshot of these 20 horses running Saturday, without regard as to what might happen in the race, or is the claim meant to embrace both the established form and the projected potential of the entire 3-year-old crop?

Is there a reason to believe in such a statement beyond the recitation of the impressive speed figures assembled by this year’s main contenders, or are those raw numbers convincing enough to end any debate?

And how far back do we go to define “long time” in the face of the changing approach to the Kentucky Derby, especially given the modern trend toward fewer starts and greater gaps between final Derby preps and the big day?

If the search goes back as far as the 1950s, there can be found the consensus watershed Derby when it comes to depth of field. Here is how Whitney Tower began his 1957 Kentucky Derby preview in Sports Illustrated:

“To talk so soon of ‘greatness’ in connection with the current crop of 3-year-old Thoroughbreds would normally be singularly audacious,” Tower wrote. “For this is an accolade not lightly awarded by horsemen. One sensational race should never qualify its winner as great.

“There has not been one sensational race in 1957,” Tower continued. “There have been at least half a dozen. The amazing performances of the 3-year-olds in Florida, Louisiana, California, New York and finally in Kentucky have surrounded the 83rd consecutive Kentucky Derby, to be run this week, with an aura of brilliance which even oldtimers find hard to duplicate.”

Today’s oldtimers, at least among racing journalists, have been typing a variation of Tower’s words for weeks, casting American Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Frosted, and Materiality in the various pre-Derby roles of Bold Ruler, Gallant Man, Round Table, Gen. Duke, and Federal Hill. Two of those brutes later earned titles as Horse of the Year, while three are in the Hall of Fame.

Whether or not the 2015 field goes on to reach such collective heights matters not. Fans can be grateful that, at least as of Tuesday morning, all of the top contenders look like they will make the race. This did not happen in 1966, when the nation’s two best 3-year-olds missed the Derby (Buckpasser and Graustark), or in 1967, when two of the three best (Dr. Fager and In Reality) stayed home.

It could be argued that a Derby field containing both Secretariat and Forego should be ranked among the best of all time, which is what happened in 1973. But Secretariat had sucked most of the air from the room by the time the Derby rolled around, and Forego did not blossom until later in the year. Among the others, only Sham got much pre-race ink, based on his swift, entrymate-aided win in the Santa Anita Derby.

(As far as that goes, though, the American foal crop of 1970 still remains the greatest of the modern era, regardless of any Derby participation. Secretariat, Forego, Ancient Title, Dahlia, and Desert Vixen are all in the Hall of Fame.)

The more recent touchstones in terms of quality Derby fields would have to be the 1997 group, a quarrelsome bunch who ran fast and often, and the class of 2007, so chock-full of individually brilliant animals.

Silver Charm, Free House, Captain Bodgit, and Pulpit all inspired faith going into the Derby that year, while Touch Gold joined the party in the Preakness. The depth of the crop was enhanced later on by Awesome Again, not to mention the ongoing achievements of the iron filly Serena’s Song.

As for 2007, Street Sense, Curlin, Any Given Saturday, and Hard Spun each stirred Derby anticipation with impressive preps. They may not have knocked the socks off the speed-figure fraternity in the manner of the 2015 major players, but they delivered with one of the best Triple Crown seasons in memory.

The 2007 field stacked up well with this reporter’s historical favorite from 1975, when champion Foolish Pleasure faced Santa Anita Derby winner Avatar, California Derby winner Diabolo, and Blue Grass and Louisiana Derby winner Master Derby. As a group, they looked good both going into the Derby and coming out, although there was a moment in the stretch where it appeared as if Diabolo and Avatar might knock each other down.

Foolish Pleasure stayed above the fray, sailing past those two and winning for the 11th time in his first 12 starts. In so doing, he led a parade of the best four colts in the race to finish 1-2-3-4, which did not necessarily have to happen.

The stars are approaching alignment for a similar result Saturday. No one putting the first four choices on their superfecta ticket will be losing any sleep. But this is no time to get cocky. In 1957, the Derby was conceded to either Gallant Man, Round Table, or Bold Ruler, depending on which one had the best luck and the best day. Then they finished second, third, and fourth when Iron Liege and Bill Hartack beat them all.