Hot Mist fits winning pattern for Clement
French expatriate Christophe Clement once was considered a “turf trainer,” and while that perspective generally has waned, maybe Clement isn’t fully appreciated as a dirt trainer.
Clement has proven especially effective with first-time starters in dirt sprints, going 11-3-3 with 38 such starters the last two years, the sample yielding a robust $3.07 return on investment. And at Tampa Bay Downs the results blow up statistical models. The last two years at Tampa Bay, Clement first-timers in dirt sprints have four wins from five starts, and through the last three years his mark stands at five wins from eight runners for a $4.10 ROI.
So, go ahead, build an early pick four ticket Saturday at Tampa around Hot Mist, who debuts in race 2, a seven-furlong maiden special weight race, for Clement and West Point Thoroughbreds. The race is the first in the sequence, and the next three are much thornier handicapping propositions.
Hot Mist is by Tonalist, the Clement-trained 2014 Belmont Stakes winner who in great part helped him shed the turf-trainer stereotype. Hot Mist is the first foal to race out of Hot Stones, a talented New York-bred whose lone graded stakes win came in the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses, a race contested at seven furlongs, which probably was her best distance. Hot Mist drew the rail, is entered against seven rivals, and has assembled an encouraging Payson Park work pattern for her unveiling.
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The race’s other main consideration, Reign Showers, also debuts. Reign Showers, a Patricia Pavlish homebred trained by Tim Hamm, is by Empire Maker out of Kickin’ the Clouds, making her a half-sister to Tapa Tapa Tapa, a two-time stakes winner over the Tampa dirt track.
Hot Mist won’t be much of a price but a longer-odds horse in race 6, Highland Park Hero, 6-1 on the morning line, could be live to start the late pick four.
Highland Park Hero is among eight entrants in the card’s only allowance race, one of the first-level variety also open to $16,000 claimers and carded at six furlongs. Highland Park Hero is entered under the claiming option, but that’s fine, since he’s been in for even lower claiming tags before. Highland Park Hero won Jan. 25, 2019, at Tampa at this class level and distance while making his third start after a layoff. His second race following that break yielded meaningful improvement on his comeback performance, and Saturday’s start marks his second after an eight-month layoff. Highland Park Hero’s fading fourth on April 22 gave strong signs of a tiring horse likely to benefit considerably from fitness gained in defeat.