Hong Kong: Lucky Girl might be rounding back into form

Lucky Girl, for starters, is not a girl but a 6-year-old gelding who has made 25 starts in Hong Kong over the last three racing seasons there. All his races had come at Sha Tin until his most recent start, on Oct. 25, when his connections finally tried him at Happy Valley. Better late than never, perhaps.

Granted, Lucky Girl was down to his lowest level, Class 3, for the first time since the summer of 2016, but that meant he was carrying top weight of 133 pounds while turning his form around with a strong second-place finish. Lucky Girl is back up to a Class 2 in the featured eighth race Wednesday night at Happy Valley, but at his best last season he got up to a 93 rating, and if his improvement at the new venue is real, Lucky Girl absolutely can win.

Lucky Girl is one of 12 in the $238,378 Tokyo Handicap, the last of eight races Wednesday night at Happy Valley. First post for the card is 6:15 a.m. Eastern with the Tokyo Handicap scheduled to go at 9:50 Eastern.

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Wednesday’s race is at the same 1,650-meter distance as Lucky Girl’s last start, and despite a two-point ratings rise thanks to his near miss last time, Lucky Girl is favorably weighted at 119. He’s a longish, gawky sort of horse, the sort one would expect to better suit the larger track at Sha Tin, but after racing last of 12 on Oct. 12, Lucky Girl really exploded (going his final 400 meters in a zippy 22.50 seconds) after cornering into the Happy Valley homestretch, flying to the wire when finally in the clear to miss by a head.

Thunder Stomp is the big ratings riser in the Tokyo Handicap, up five points after a half-length Class 3 course and distance win in which he got his final 400 meters in a good 23.09. Thunder Stomp already has won 2 of 4 this year, and while in at just 120 pounds thanks to a seven-pound bug rider, he probably will need plenty of luck to make it 3 for 5.

Beauty Prince was a somewhat one-paced third from a good pace-pressing position in a similar race last out, but at least figures to hold his form while running from near the pace again Wednesday and is not out of the question.

Top-rated (91) Pikacho won at this level going 1,800 meters at Happy Valley two starts back, but has been a very rare winner during his Hong Kong career.

Happy Spirit has contending form from last season but is unraced since June. He showed little in his barrier trials on the Sha Tin dirt, and though he won a trial race on turf in his final prep for this start, he seems unlikely to come right out swinging.