Hong Kong: Grateful Heart should get preferred trip in Class 2 handicap

Whatever transpires during the nine-race card Thursday at Happy Valley, it will almost certainly be more predictable than the stakes races on the Easter Monday card at Sha Tin in Hong Kong.

At 12-1, Mighty Giant was second-longest priced in the Group 2 Chairman’s Trophy over 1,600 meters; he led all the way to win by a half-length as heavily favored Waikuku never picked up and checked in last of five after the likely pacesetter, Ka King Star, was a scratch. And that was nothing compared to the Group 2 Sprint Cup, won by Amazing Star at an amazing 179-1. It was easily the biggest win in the young training career of Jimmy Ting and the most important Hong Kong win posted by Brazilian jockey Vagner Borges.

The Happy Valley feature comes early, race 3, and while it might be tempting to discard logic and reason after Amazing Star won the Sprint Cup with no form to suggest he could, a more traditional analytic approach might land on Grateful Heart, who will be much closer to 1.79-1 than 179-1 in this Class 2 handicap over 1,000 meters for horses rated 100-80.

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Grateful Heart, a 4-year-old Australian-bred, won 2 of 3 starts before being imported to Hong Kong, and after an unsteady 2019-20 season, he has demonstrated remarkable consistency this term during a very productive campaign. Trained by Clifford Shum, Grateful Heart began the ongoing season racing at moderate weight in Class 3 handicaps, rating just 65, but after compiling a record of 7-4-1-1 he is rated 98, which leads to a weighty Wednesday impost of 132 pounds including jockey Zac Purton.

Grateful Heart exits a third-place finish in a Happy Valley Class 2 but was asked to race over 1,200 meters and lead. While Grateful Heart went wire to wire in one of his wins earlier this season, he seems to function best as a presser or stalker, and, cutting back to 1,000 meters Wednesday, he could get his preferred trip with speedy We the South likely happy to show the way.

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Explosive Witness, top-rated at 99 and carrying 133 pounds, rallies from farther back at this trip and did get up to win a Happy Valley Class 2 over 1,000 meters in November, overcoming post 11 but carrying 124 pounds. Valiant Dream and Flying Genius exit narrow Class 3 wins but while favorably weighted might not be quite good enough for the top performers here.

Post time for the first race is 6:45 a.m. Eastern. You can catch all the action at DRFBets.com.