Hong Kong: Contested pace could set things up for closer in Sha Tin feature

This is not a standard Wednesday night’s racing in Hong Kong. The venue is not Happy Valley, the usual Wednesday site, and the surface is not turf, as this mid-week, nine-race program is hosted at Sha Tin, the entire card to be run on dirt.

The feature, a Class 2 handicap for horses rated 105-80, is carded for 1,650 meters, one lap around the course, and goes as the last of nine races. The race drew 11 entrants and looks competitive.

Top-rated Kings Shield, one of the more established dirt horses in Hong Kong, would be formidable here dropping from Class 1 handicaps and stakes races even carrying 133 pounds, but Kings Shield has done all his best work racing on the lead an appears to have serious pace rivals. Californiadeepshot and Magnificent will want to go forward, and, breaking from a tough draw in post 11, Hongkong Great, who has sharp recent dirt form at the Class 3 level, seems likely to make a beeline for the engine. If even, say, half these pace factors actually materialize, it’ll make things tough on Kings Shield.

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One potential beneficiary of a taxing early and middle pace is Elusive State, rated 103, just below Kings Shield’s 104. Elusive State, a 7-year-old Australian-bred by All American, has been kicking around Hong Kong since autumn 2016, and after a very poor 2016-17 season racing on turf, he was switched to dirt as soon as possible during the 2017-18 season, winning a couple Class 4s. It was the following season that Elusive State really blossomed, raising his rating from 57 to 93 through his campaign, and he essentially has maintained that form ever since. Wednesday’s distance appears to be his best, and it was over 1,650 meters on dirt that Elusive State in his most recent start, on Jan. 17, won a Class 1 handicap by 1 3/4 lengths. He picks 11 pounds off a six-point rating rise, breaks from post 1 under Joao Moreira, and has the right stalking and closing style to get a favorable trip.

Righteous Doctrine looks like the other closer to consider, and he carries just 115 pounds. Righteous Doctrine won twice last season over Sha Tin dirt and when third at this class level and distance in his most recent race, on Dec. 16, he rallied stoutly after breaking from post 10. Wednesday, he’s drawn in post 2, and Righteous Doctrine could be set for something competitive after a 3 1/2-month break. During January his main manner of exercise was swimming, with some mild gallops (called trots in Hong Kong) interspersed. From Feb. 1 through Feb. 19, Righteous Doctrine alternated galloping and swimming until trainer Michael Chang Chun-wai finally gave his horse some fast work on Feb. 20. Since then, Righteous Doctrine has posted nine timed workouts and in his lone training race on March 19, the gelding was restrained throughout while kept wide by jockey Alexis Badel, who regains the mount Wednesday for the first time in 13 starts.

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First post for the card is 6:45 a.m. Eastern. You can catch all the action at DRFBets.com.