Hollywood Park handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 23

Top Fortitude impressive

When it comes to splashy debuts by well-bred maidens, the Nov. 16 win by Top Fortitude will be tough to top. A full brother to graded stakes winner Uh Oh Bango, the 2-year-old Top Fortitude emerged as one of the top 3-year-old prospects of 2014 with a sharp win that combined two key elements – he overcame an eventful trip and ran fast.

Top Fortitude is trained by Kory Owens, who admitted that he was surprised at the colt’s first-out professionalism.

“I didn’t know he would be that mature, that he would take the beating in the middle and all that,” Owens said. “They were actually hitting each other.”

Top Fortitude broke well under Kayla Stra but soon found himself sandwiched between two rivals while positioned in fourth. It was an awkward spot for a first-time starter, but Top Fortitude and Stra both stayed cool.

Stra eased him back, allowed the rivals to clear, and guided Top Fortitude to the outside. The colt did the rest. He rallied three wide, took off the final eighth, and drew away by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:16.35. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

The maiden race was the third Top Fortitude entered. He was scratched after drawing the rail Oct. 14 at Santa Anita and did not get in as an also-eligible Nov. 3. For the Hollywood race, Owens was skeptical.

“I kind of didn’t want to run him at Hollywood because he had not trained there,” he said.

Top Fortitude was bred in Arizona and is owned by the Owens family’s Triple AAA Ranch. While Owens acknowledged interest from potential buyers, he did not anticipate a sale. He said the colt will skip the remainder of the Hollywood fall meet and start next at Santa Anita.

Baltas bombs

Trainer Richard Baltas has posted several recent upsets with first-time starters, so perhaps Casey’s Clem should not have been a complete surprise. The 2-year-old filly debuted Nov. 17 in a special-weight sprint for California-bred fillies. Her ordinary works were typical for Baltas. The filly broke slowly, but it did not matter. Baltas trainees save their best for last. Casey’s Clem won going away at $40.60. It has happened before.

One year ago on Nov. 18, 2012, Baltas 2-year-old first-time starter Little Jerry broke slowly in a special-weight route. He rallied from far back, won going away, and paid $53.80. Clearly, Baltas trainees should not be judged by slow works. Baltas sends them fit and they do finish.

Over the past 14 months, Baltas is 4 for 15 with first-time starters. In addition to Casey’s Clem and Little Jerry, Baltas trainees Flashy Ways ($24.40) won Aug. 16, 2012 and Jade With Envy ($25.20) won Nov. 19, 2012. Bettors might want to take a second look Saturday at Lust for Life, a longshot first-timer in race 7.

Real Quiet Stakes preview

The autumn speed bias at Santa Anita was blatant, including Nov. 1, when deep closer Tamarando had no shot. Favored at 7-5 in the $200,000 Golden State Juvenile at one mile, he rallied from last and finished third by 1 1/2 lengths. He ran super in defeat.

Tamarando also ran well his previous start Sept. 28 at Santa Anita. Racing 1 1/6 miles in the Grade 1 FrontRunner, he hit the gate, broke slowly, and rallied to be third.

The winner of the seven-furlong, Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, Tamarando should be tough to beat Saturday in the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood, right? Not so fast. Although the Hollywood main track plays fair and Tamarando is the “class” of the field, he still has something to prove around two turns.

Although Tamarando is the horse to beat, there is a nagging suspicion that he might be better as a late-running sprinter.

◗ Rock and Glory returned to peak form Nov. 16. She won a second-level allowance by more than six lengths with a 91 Beyer that would make her a contender Dec. 7 in the Grade 2 Bayakoa Stakes. Rock and Glory is trained by Tim Yakteen.

◗ Global Hottie improved a ton Nov. 17. The second-time starter won a California-bred sprint for 2-year-old fillies by more than four lengths with an 81 Beyer that would make her one of the choices in the $200,000 Soviet Problem Stakes on Dec. 21. Global Hottie is trained by Bob Baffert.

◗ War Academy, a Baffert trainee once on the Derby trail, is now on the comeback trail. He pulled up April 13 at Oaklawn as the favorite in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, worked twice after, and then disappeared. War Academy had his first three-furlong work Nov. 17 at Santa Anita.

◗ Safety Belt, Group 1-placed in Argentina, has been posting fast works at Santa Anita for trainer Ron McAnally as he prepares for his U.S. debut. The 4-year-old had two recent bullet works at six furlongs – 1:13 on Nov. 9 and 1:12.80 on Nov. 16.