Hitting $123K carryover may come down to flip of coin

For the second consecutive weekend nobody hit the pick six at Aqueduct, and for the second straight Friday there will be a double carryover.

The Friday carryover is $123,511, about $10,000 less than a week ago when players pumped $747,000 in new money into the wager. There are 45 betting interests – 7.5 per race – in the Friday pick six, which begins on race 4.

Three of the races look like two-horse affairs. Bettors will have to choose between Floss Dancer and Gentle Annie in race 5, Avalina and Don’t Rush in race 8, and Coolboy and Jack Bo in the nightcap.

To aggressively keep the cost of my tickets down, I am going to single Avalina in race 8 and Jack Bo in race 9. I won’t be using Analyze the Odds, who could be favored in race 7.

Don’t Rush, who also may go favored, Coolboy, and Analyze the Odds can be used by those wishing to spread a wider net, as can my C horses in races 4 and 6, whom I will be leaving off my tickets.

In addition to the pick six, there is a $46,490 NYRA Bets pick five carryover Friday.

Here is a $144 play that consists of a $72 main ticket and two $36 sub-tickets using B runners in races 5 and 7. Only one of the B horses can win for a ticket to have six winners.

The DRF TicketMaker graphic below shows those tickets, plus the added investment needed to use both B horses, and all of the A horses with one C runner.

Race 4: This nonwinners-of-three $14,000 claiming race for fillies and mares should come down to the Jeremiah Englehart-trained Two Hot Betty (2); Golden Vale (7), who is trained by Brad Cox; and Malarkey (8), who takes a big class drop for Michelle Nevin.

I have Speed Khaleesi as a C. She was well beaten by Two Hot Betty last time out but appears to be the lone speed.

Two Hot Betty won a nonwinners-of-two in December and then came up three-quarters of a length short of Jump for Joy at this level March 2. Jump for Joy came back to win an open $20,000 claimer eight days later.

Golden Vale won a nonwinners-of-two $16,000 claimer Jan. 25. The 65 Beyer Speed Figure she earned is a hair higher than Two Hot Betty’s recent numbers.

Nevin claimed Malarkey for $25,000 in January and ran her back March 8 for $40,000. She finished sixth.

Race 5: Floss Dancer (2) takes a big class drop for Michael Tannuzzo in this nonwinners-of-two $40,000 claimer for fillies and mares after being competitive in optional-claiming company at Laurel Park and finishing eighth in the Busanda.

Gentle Annie (5) takes a much-needed drop for Gary Sciacca after making her last five starts in statebred allowance company.

The B horse on my first sub-ticket is Party in the Sand (4), whom Carlos Martin claimed out of a fourth-place finish for $25,000 in mid-February. Martin has given her two recent works and I take it as a positive that he moves her up in price.

Race 6: Never Felt Better (No. 2, trained by Ray Handal), Dr Burt (3, Danny Gargan), and Flat Rate (9, Rudy Rodriguez) pretty much cover this $25,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-olds.

If you want to go deeper, throw in the Gary Gullo first-time starter Cool Your Boots, whom I have as a C.

Race 7: Papa Shot (1, Rodriguez), part of an entry, drops to a level at which he won two starts back in this statebred $25,000 claimer. Wrong Ben (4, Mark Hennig) also dips significantly out of a second-level statebred optional claimer.

Playthatfunnymusic (5, Jeffrey Englehart), who is on the second sub-ticket, is another class-dropper.

I’m not using Analyze the Odds because I don’t like that Linda Rice claimed him for $40,000 and brings him back almost nine weeks later for $25,000. He has an irregular work pattern.

Race 8: Don’t Rush comes into this optional starter off a $50,000 maiden-claiming debut win at Gulfstream Park for Todd Pletcher. Avalina enters off a 13-length debut win in a $50,000 claimer at Aqueduct for Gargan.

Although their Beyers are close, I will single Avalina (4). Mom I Forgive You, who finished third to her, came back to win. The runner-up, Xanthique, finished a close second last Friday.

In Don’t Rush’s win, the 3-2 favorite Ms. Maximim was pulled up before the field reached the far turn and the second- and third-place runners were unplaced next time out.

Race 9: Both Jack Bo, whom I will single, and Coolboy drop to $30,000 maiden company.

Cox claimed Jack Bo (5) for $40,000 on Feb. 8 and has worked him four times. The fact Cox brings him back for a lower price is a concern, but his last race has produced two next-out winners and he should be tough to beat at this level.

Coolboy, trained by Tony Dutrow, was bothered at the start of his last race going a mile, and then was finished after five furlongs.