History gives Justify a lock on Horse of the Year

ELMONT, N.Y. – The year may not even be half over, but in the race for Horse of the Year, it’s over.

Justify is the fifth Triple Crown winner since the Eclipse Award era began in 1971, and all four previous Triple Crown winners during that span – Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977, Affirmed in 1978, and American Pharoah in 2015 – were voted Horse of the Year, regardless of whether the second half of their 3-year-old year was brilliant or, in the case of Seattle Slew, a washout. Of course, all four also were named champion 3-year-old male those years.

Eclipse Award voters repeatedly and understandably have shown they believe there is no higher achievement than sweeping the Triple Crown, which Justify completed with his front-running victory on Saturday in the Belmont Stakes, his sixth win without a loss and his fourth Grade 1 win. The importance of a Triple Crown win was never more stark than in 1978, when Affirmed finished well behind Seattle Slew in a pair of head-to-head meetings that fall, but Affirmed’s body of work was adjudged superior to Seattle Slew’s late-season heroics.

Secretariat and American Pharoah both beat older runners during the second half of the year. Justify’s current proposed schedule includes the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which American Pharoah – who, like Justify, was trained by Bob Baffert – won in 2015 in his career finale and his only start against elders. This year’s Classic is at Churchill Downs, where Justify’s Triple Crown heroics began in the Kentucky Derby 5 1/2 weeks ago.

Seattle Slew ran only once as a 3-year-old following his Triple Crown sweep. He suffered the first loss of his career, in the Swaps Stakes on July 3, then went to the sidelines, so he never faced older horses that year. The champion older horse in 1977, for the fourth straight year, was Forego, who that year won two Grade 1 races, the Met Mile and the Woodward, but lost the Grade 1 Suburban and Brooklyn, and Grade 2 Whitney.

Similar to 1977, there currently is no older horse who is building the kind of daunting résumé that could even make Horse of the Year debatable. Last year’s champion 3-year-old, West Coast, has lost both his starts this year, finishing second in both the Pegasus World Cup and Dubai World Cup, and he has yet to record a workout since the Dubai World Cup. He is training at Churchill Downs, and is being pointed to campaign in late summer and fall, according to Baffert.

The only older runners with a pair of Grade 1 wins the first half of the year are Accelerate and Heart to Heart. The only horse besides Justify with more than two Grade 1 wins is the 3-year-old filly Monomoy Girl, who has three.

Yet while Horse of the Year historically has been a slam dunk for a Triple Crown winner, his connections don’t necessarily ride his coattails.

In 1973, Penny Chenery’s Meadow Stable was voted champion owner for Secretariat’s accomplishments, but Allen Jerkens won the Eclipse Award as champion trainer – beating Secretariat’s trainer, Lucien Laurin, who had won the title in 1972 – and Laffit Pincay Jr. was voted top jockey, beating Secretariat’s rider Ron Turcotte.

In 1977, Seattle Slew’s team of owners Karen and Mickey Taylor and Jim and Sally Hill, trainer Billy Turner, and jockey Jean Cruguet all were shut out for divisional titles.

In 1978, however, Affirmed’s trainer, Laz Barrera, and owner and breeder, Lou Wolfson’s Harbor View Farm, won divisional Eclipse Awards, though Affirmed’s jockey Steve Cauthen – who had won in 1977 – lost to Darrel McHargue.

And then in 2015, Baffert won the training title, but neither jockey American Pharoah’s jockey Victor Espinoza nor his owner and breeder, the Zayat Stables of Ahmed and Justin Zayat, were similarly honored.

Those associated with Justify are building strong résumé toward potential Eclipse Awards themselves.

Baffert is third in purse earnings behind Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher, who have run far more horses, but he and Pletcher are tied for most Grade 1 wins with five.

Justify’s jockey, Mike Smith, leads all riders with seven Grade 1 victories. The only other rider with more than two is Florent Geroux, who has four. Geroux tops the earnings list among riders, while Smith, who has had far fewer mounts (118 to 485), is seventh.

Justify’s majority owners, WinStar Farm and China Horse Club, have won six Grade 1 races in various partnerships, four with Justify, and one each with Audible and Yoshida. China Horse Club also co-owns Phipps winner Abel Tasman, giving China Horse Club seven Grade 1 wins, all with horses in whom they own significant interests.

The majority owner of Monomoy Girl, Sol Kumin, numbers three Grade 1 wins with her, and has smaller interests in Justify, Audible, Yoshida, Bowies Hero, and A Raving Beauty, so he’s been associated with 11 Grade 1 race wins this year.