Highland Falls clearly the logical choice in Monmouth Cup

OCEANPORT, N.J. – Still without an explanation for the Godolphin homebred 4-year-old First Mission’s flat fourth-place finish as the odds-on favorite in the Stephen Foster Stakes last month, trainer Brad Cox hopes the Godolphin homebred 4-year-old Highland Falls’s performance requires no post-race forensics after the Monmouth Cup.

In a fair fight only one horse among the other seven entered in the Grade 3, $400,000 Monmouth Cup, a 1 1/8-mile dirt race, could beat Highland Falls, and Tapit Trice hasn’t started since the Travers Stakes 11 months ago. Highland Falls, meanwhile, has steadily improved while racing without much of a break since a winning debut Aug. 26, same day as the Travers.

Highland Falls probably didn’t quite show his best when shipped west in March for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, checking in a decent fourth making his stakes debut. In April he posted a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure finishing second to Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap.

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Most recently, in the June 1 Blame Stakes over 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs, Highland Falls handed Cagliostro a one-length defeat. Cagliostro returned with a solid victory in the $250,000 Hanshin Stakes.

“He’s meant to be better with racing and age given his pedigree,” said Cox. “I like him at a mile and an eighth.”

By Curlin out of Round Pond, twice an Eclipse Award finalist during her racing days, Highland Falls deploys a grinding, stalking style, not flashy but as evidenced by his 4-1-1 record from seven starts, consistently effective. Cox said he hopes to return Highland Falls to Grade 1 competition in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga if the colt runs to form Saturday.

Highland Falls has posted four recent Churchill workouts and comes to this start showing no outward sign of decline.

Highland Falls does take a long time to wind up his run – jockey Florent Geroux joked after the Blame that he felt like he was sitting on a 1 1/2-mile horse – but would look more vulnerable if any of the competition besides Tapit Trice appeared capable of producing a competitive race. They don’t, though if Kuchar or Counterspy, the Monmouth Cup’s only pace players, were to slip clear on an easy lead, they could stick around to the wire.

As for 4-year-old Tapit Trice, he ranked as a leading 3-year-old last year, finishing seventh in the Kentucky Derby at odds of only 9-2. A gangly Tapit colt who has even less speed than Highland Falls, Tapit Trice’s high-water marks came winning the Blue Grass and finishing third in the Belmont and the Travers. The colt was entered and scratched from the Alysheba Stakes in May and the Blame in June owing to a lingering quarter crack, trainer Todd Pletcher said.

“We had to address that, and he’s currently in good order,” Pletcher said. “This is not ideally where we’d want to come back with him, but it’s where we’re at. He’s behind the 4-year-old schedule we’d envisioned for him, but we need to get back on course, and I suppose a race like this could spring him forward to the Jockey Club Gold Cup or something like that.”

It’s not out of the question someone could spring a Monmouth Cup upset. It’s anyone’s guess who that might be.

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