Hi Happy may offer value in Bowling Green

LOUISVILLY, Ky. – By my evaluation there are at least four horses in Saturday’s Grade 2 Bowling Green at Saratoga who are exiting a troubled trip. Only one, however, comes off trouble that is not obvious – Hi Happy.

Unlike Money Multiplier, who fought restraint early in the United Nations, or Sadler’s Joy and Manitoulin, both of whom had wide trips in the Manhattan, Hi Happy’s last-out trip does not jump out in the running lines or perhaps even in a quick video review of the race. In finishing third in the Grade 1 Manhattan on June 9, he broke cleanly and saved ground while never being steadied or checked.

Yet he still was a neck behind runner-up Sadler’s Joy at the finish, and only a neck ahead of fourth-place Manitoulin. So when bettors view that running line for Saturday’s race, I suspect some will consider him fortunate to have been third.

I view his Manhattan effort more promisingly. Hi Happy never got a breather in the 1 1/4-mile grass event, taking pressure virtually every step while largely inside of fellow front-runner Hello Don Julio. Watching the race, it seemed he was in retreat at a couple stages, but every time he was outquickened he just kept finding more to put himself back in contention.

That kind of perseverance is not quantifiable in the way ground loss is. And his backers should be thankful for that, as it could lead to him being a tick or two higher on the odds board than he should be.

He will still attract support as one of the favorites, to be sure. He is a horse that won the Man o’ War at Belmont earlier in the year, as well as the Pan American at Gulfstream, and those victories will gain attention. Moreover, he has high-profile, winning connections with trainer Todd Pletcher and his new jockey, John Velazquez.

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Nevertheless, with his Manhattan trip not so immediately noticeable, he may offer value in a relative sense.

The setup of the Bowling Green appears in his favor. The race drew limited speed, with only longshot Glorious Empire looking like a true front-runner. Drawn outside that rival, Velazquez should be able to ride Hi Happy patiently, just letting him get into a comfortable pace – the opposite of what occurred in the Manhattan.

Hi Happy used an outside tracking trip in winning the Man o’ War and Pan American.

Hi Happy’s strengths aside, the Bowling Green seems closely matched among the leading contenders. Of the other major players, I see Sadler’s Joy and Money Multiplier as his primary foes. Both are millionaires who are also winners over the Saratoga course, while Manitoulin still has some work to do to establish his credentials.

Money Multiplier tossed his head when placed under a hold in his last race. That concerns me in that it was largely trouble of his own doing. He has now fought his jockey in two of his last three starts, with the other instance when he went to Qatar and finished third in the Grade 1 Emir’s Trophy.

Now Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over the reins aboard Money Multiplier, and if he is to receive a peak effort he will likely have to balance the fine line of getting the horse to settle without “getting into his mouth” – which he seems to resent.

In a reflection on their class, handicappers should take note that Sadler’s Joy and Money Multiplier were the one-two finishers in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer last summer, with another Bowling Green runner, Bigger Picture, not far behind in third. That race followed the 2017 Bowling Green, in which Bigger Picture and Sadler’s Joy ran second and third.

Although Sadler’s Joy and Money Multiplier seem every bit as sharp now as they were last year, I am dubious that is the case with Bigger Picture. His one win in four starts this year was over easier opposition at Sam Houston in the Grade 3 John Connally, and in three starts since he has two sevenths and a third, with the latter in the United Nations.

The United Nations, in which Money Multiplier was second, was officially a Grade 1, but the composition of that lineup seemed a cut below the Grade 2 group assembled for the Bowling Green.