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Hersh: Transatlantic pick 4 for Sunday, Oct. 7

Marcus Hersh|Oct 05, 2018

The Transatlantic pick four will stretch your handicapping skills, including two Group 1s from Longchamp and two Grade 1s at Belmont.

The sequence starts with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which for me is a two-horse race between 4-year-old filly ENABLE and 3-year-old filly SEA OF CLASS. The latter has more upside and a worse draw, the former more proven form – including a decisive win in this race last year – and a better draw. Enable though is a heavy favorite who, owing to a leg injury early in the year, has raced only once going into this.

Leaving out Waldgeist, who has made his reputation this year feasting on soft competition.

Hope to land a price in the Prix de l’Opera. Favored WILD ILLUSION undoubtedly impressive in the Nassau where she made all the running but is mainly favored on the strength of that one performance, though she does appear to be best suited to this 10-furlong trip. WITH YOU might not really want to go this far, and of the shorter prices I prefer MAGIC WAND, but this ticket goes nine deep.

Back in America, I’ll try to beat favored Covfefe in the Frizette. She is back on just three weeks' rest while shipping to a new venue that doesn’t have the most straightforward surface. Got loose on the lead last time, but will take pressure if she goes to the front Sunday.

JAYWALK should enjoy the stretch to one mile and will be undervalue because of the venues at which she’s competed. NONNA MADELINE doesn’t have to go to the front and ran well holding fifth in the Spinaway after being on a pace that totally collapsed late. GRACEFUL PRINCESS also was a sharp debut winner and will be perhaps three times the price of Covfefe and while CASSIES DREAMER benefited from the race flow in the Spinaway she also has come back with sharp work at Belmont and might get another favorable setup.

Finally, it all – should we get this far – rides on FOURSTAR CROOK in the Flower Bowl. The pace should at least be fair and Fourstar Crook, making just her fifth start of a measured campaign, has been nearly unbeatable over the Belmont course.

ARC
1. Sea of Class
2. Enable
3. Kew Gardens

OPERA
1. Magic Wand
2. Wild Illusion
3. Desert Diamond

FRIZETTE
1. Jaywalk
2. Nonna Madeleine
3. Covfefe

FLOWER BOWL
1. Fourstar Crook
2. Onthemoonagain
3. Lady Montdore

$36 50-cent pick four
Arc:
10,19
Opera: 1,2,4,6,8,9,11,15,16
Frizette: 2,4,5,7
Flower Bowl: 7

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