Hersh: Saratoga pick four play for Saturday, Aug. 2

Late pick four, races 8-11

It’s not every day that you can play a pick four that includes three Grade 1s – though the opening leg, the Vanderbilt, race 8, looks like a Grade 1 in name only. I want to trust HAPPY MY WAY (#5) there more than I actually do. The good: He’s been dominant in winning the four starts this year where he had a chance and showed last out at Pimlico that he’s not just a Gulfstream Park specialist. The bad: Among his victims, only Ribo Bobo might be as good as the best competition here. The good: He can make a clear lead and looks like the true six-furlong horse in the race. The bad: What if outside-drawn BAKKEN (#8) hooks him early?

So, I made Happy My Way a co-A with BAHAMIAN SQUALL (#4), who was second in this race last year and surely was using that Florida comeback last month as a bridge to a second try. He’s good enough to win at his best. The more I looked, the more it seemed PALACE (#1) is legitimately improved and can win, and I can’t have lightly raced Bakken take a step forward in his second stakes start and knock me out. FALLING SKY (#2) appears to want more distance but has run fast enough; 1,2, and 8 are Bs, and CAPO BASTONE (#6), who ran the race of his life in the King’s Bishop last summer, his only previous Saratoga start, is a bombing C.

SWEET WHISKEY (#3) might have won the Acorn had that one-mile race been at the Test’s seven furlongs, and she can turn the table on SWEET REASON (#7). Expect a fast pace to set things up for both fillies, each of whom appears to have trained well into this start. FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD (#2) moves to the rail with the scratch of the 1 horse; I like the horse but really dislike the draw, so she’s a B. My guess is that SOUTHERN HONEY (#5) is not going to reproduce her Kentucky form, and she risks getting caught in a hot pace. I’ll use her as a C but not more.

I considered DEPARTING (#6) as a co-A with heavily favored PALACE MALICE (#5) in the Whitney but just couldn’t give them equal weight, though a Palace Malice win will definitely tamp down pick four payoffs barring surrounding wins from true bombers. If WILL TAKE CHARGE (#1) suddenly finds his peak form, he can win. Doubt he will, but he makes it as a C on the off chance.

Race 11, the Lure, is BIG BLUE KITTEN’s (#4) for the taking – if he can get up in time. At just 8 1/2 furlongs, though, the race falls short of his ideal distance, and he will need pace help up front. On paper, the pace should be fair, but the guzzling of horses who want to run more freely than their jockeys desire has become a constant in American racing. I didn’t much like PLAINVIEW (#6) despite his perfect Saratoga turf record, but he’s the controlling speed if the other pace players let him go, so I included him as a B.

The other A is PARIS VEGAS (#7), who seems clearly to have been pointed to Saratoga, where he ran the best race of his life in finishing second to Silver Max last summer in the Bernard Baruch. A one-run stalker, he’s several times been the victim of a slow pace, and legit fractions should give him a good chance to close this sequence at odds far more appealing than Big Blue Kitten’s. SWIFT WARRIOR (#2) and VILLANDRY (#8) are capable if things fall their way. I’m leaving out KHARAFA because of his poor draw and the good chance that he loses precious ground on the first turn.

Here’s how my ticket looks on DRF’s invaluable Ticketmaker. I punched the all A’s three times and could easily press a couple other combos (with Departing, for instance) since the individual ticket costs all are manageable. The whole enterprise assumes a fast main track and the grass race staying on. If not, back to square one.