Hersh: Saratoga pick five play for Saturday, Aug. 30

You don’t get too many pick fives ending on the two-time Horse of the Year. I’m not in the “beat Wise Dan” camp – in fact, I’m singling WISE DAN in race 5 on this ticket. Also singling MSHAWISH in race 3.

Race 1 – Third-time starter and morning-line favorite FIRESPIKE (#3) looks vulnerable but still makes the A list. To me, this is the trickiest leg in the sequence, and even with seven total on the ticket, I’m just hoping to survive.

Race 2 – TWO WEEKS OFF (#4) and GOLD SHIELD (6) are almost certainly going to be the favorites, but I decided to elevate ESCALATE (#2) to equal A status at a much bigger price. EVOLUTION (#8) showed significant improvement from first to second starts and probably won’t move forward again but just in case.

Race 3 – MSHAWISH (#5) had a poor trip making his U.S. debut in a Grade 3 stakes. Anything close to his best form from Europe or Dubai will swamp this allowance bunch.

Race 4 – EL KABEIR (#5) and ROYAL SON (#7) are the obvious favorites, but I give HILLBILLY STYLE (#2) and KICK OFF (#3) enough of a chance to make them Bs and not Cs. Hillbilly Style broke from the rail turf-sprinting in debut and might have been intended for this race all along. Debuting Kick Off’s drills are encouraging.

Race 5 – WISE DAN (#4) touts himself in his works, and his most recent was very sharp. Seek Again’s Fourstardave win validated Wise Dan’s performance in the Turf Classic, and he should have a favorable setup today.
Here’s the play on DRF’s invaluable Ticketmaker: