Hersh: Santa Anita Breeders' Cup pick four play for Friday

Race 6
A – 4,5,11
B – 1,6,8,13

Race 7
A – 1,3
B – none

Race 8
A – 1,13,14
B – 4, 7

Race 9
A – 1,5
B – 6

50-cent bet = $97

:: See Marcus Hersh’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets

There is no number 8 listed in race 9, which means if Beholder wins the Distaff, I lose this pick four bet. Despite what the Beyer figures say, I’m taking the position that her form slowly is slipping, and that she will struggle even to reproduce her last race. I see Songbird (#1) slipping clear and having to hold off (probably), Stellar Wind (#5). If the early and middle fractions prove too taxing, Forever Unbridled (#6) is the one I like from off the pace. She is sneakily right up with the top horses in this race and could not have won her last more easily.

I initially left out the Aidan O’Brien pair of Juvenile Turf (race 6) starters, Lancaster Bomber (#1) and Intelligence Cross (#8), but had strong second thoughts about being knocked out right away by a guy who has won this race three times the last five years with horses that had similar credentials to these two. I still remain high on the pricey pair of Favorable Outcome (#4) and Made You Look (#5), and will be playing them as straight bets, as well.

The ticket narrows to just two chances in the Dirt Mile (race 7). Dortmund (#3) will be singled on many tickets, and while I think he’s formidable, I like Vyjack (#1) at a price high enough to equally weight him here.

The Euros in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (race 8) look deep and strong to me, with the O’Brien pair, Roly Poly (#13) and Hydrangea (#1), having clearly stronger claims than his colts in the Juvenile Turf. I prefer Roly Poly and won’t let a poor draw dissuade me, as also is the case with the best American horse in the race, La Coronel (#14).