Hersh: Preakness day all-stakes pick four play
I was up to $180 or so in complex pick four tickets, was trying to decide whether it made any sense to even include Justify at all, was tracking through every single race everyone in The Very One had run to see who might handle a turf course that is going to be very, very, very soft. And finally got to the point, especially considering the radically wet conditions that are likely, where it just seemed like a poor idea to get too heavily invested.
So, instead, a limited caveman play, total investment just $36. Everything in Baltimore is soaked, but we’re going to mainly keep our powder dry here.
Race 10 – Maryland Sprint
I see SWITZERLAND(#5), who seems finally to have figured things out, pressing/stalking the speed while on the outside, the best part of the Pimlico surface, and talking the lead in upper stretch. From there, it’s just a question of whether he can hold off LONG HAUL BAY (#9). I dislike leaning hard on either of these horses, but really have trouble seeing anyone else beyond relatively random results. Fellowship is the third one I’d use, but even under ideal conditions I wonder if he gets there at a distance as short as six furlongs.
Race 11 – The Very One
The problem is you could use eight horses and still not really know who is going to handle this bog of a course. The one we know goes over soft ground is BOOS (#8), and since she had a very quiet 2017 campaign she’ll be a price, and if Boos can get home, it would make this ticket pay. GIRLS KNOW BEST (#7) and WHO'S TALKIN (#12) are the likely top two choices. Not sure how wet a Keeneland course labeled “yielding” over which Girls Know Best aired last time could’ve been since they ran fast.
Race 12 – Sir Barton
Totally against morning-line favorite Ax Man and would be most happy with DREAM BABY DREAM (#6) getting up here as the fourth or fifth choice. He’s the “other” Asmussen, as TITLE READY (#11) figures second choice at worst as he finally gets off the rail. PONY UP (#2) was a borderline include as I don’t believe he has much upside on dirt.
Race 13 – Preakness
If Boos and Dream Baby Dream somehow win the payoff here even with JUSTIFY (#7) capturing the Preakness will be okay, so I’m using the odds-on favorite despite the chance the whole thing chalks out and pays $50. Really feel like LONE SAILOR (#2) is going to run well, but of course he simply might not be good enough. GOOD MAGIC (#5) will be a strong second choice but still would really boost the pick four if he can turn the tables on Justify.
The play:
5,9 with 7,8,12 with 2,6,11 with 2,5,7 = $27 per 50-cent increment
5,9 with 7,8,12 with 2,6,11 with 7 = $9 per 50-cent increment